基于水利工程兴建下的陕西关中农业工程投资效益研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 20:33

本文选题：农业工程 + 水利工程　；参考：《西安理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：水利是农业的命脉,水利工程投资规模的大小、水利工程的工程管理和科学运用,可以更大的发挥现有水资源的实际效益。水利工程的兴建和工程管理是保障农业生产安全、加快农业现代化发展的重要物质条件。特别是在水资源缺乏条件下,水利工程满足农业发展和需要等问题直接会影响农业抵御自然灾害能力和农业生产率及生产效益。目前,在国家加快城镇化发展的背景下,出现一个新的问题就是耕地面积减少,耕地质量变差,这已严重威胁我国的农业粮食生产安全,并且在国家大力发展水利工程的背景下,研究水利工程兴建条件下农业工程生产投资效益是十分迫切与必要的。陕西省关中地区属于半干旱半湿润地区,水资源紧缺。水利工程的投资建设很大程度上影响着该区域的农业生产。因此,本文选取关中地区1978～2013年的农业生产及水利工程兴建的相关数据,进行以下研究:第一,分析关中地区水利、农业生产基础条件及其他农业投资现状、农业粮食产量波动情况;第二,采用主成分分析法分析投建水利工程所增加的有效灌溉面积及旱涝保湿面积及农业生产所需要的耕地、化肥、农药、人力等投入对农业生产的影响程度,得出作用农业生产的主成分因素;第三,建立主成分回归模型分析水利投资及其他投入对农业工程生产投资效益的影响作用与影响机理;第四,分析在水利工程兴建条件下关中地区粮食安全状况。通过研究,得出主要结论有:(1)从基础条件来看,关中地区水资源短缺,但地势平坦,总体上较适合粮食生产。从农业投入来看,水利投资一直处于增长趋势,至今有效灌溉率达到43.46%,但耕地面积一直在减少,农业机械、用电量、农药、化肥、农用薄膜等农业投入一直处于增加趋势。从受灾情况来看,关中地区粮食受灾面积一直处于波动状态,粮食受灾率及成灾率分别平均超过播种面积的50%与28%。从粮食波动情况来看,关中地区粮食生产一直处于波动状态,且波动幅度较大,波动频率高。(2)主成分分析结果表明,影响关中地区粮食产量的主成分有四个,累计方差为91.849%,第一主成分主要由有效水利灌溉面积、受灾面积、主要农作物播种面积、成灾面积、耕地面积组成,方差贡献率达到55.351%;第二主成分主要由农林牧渔就业人数、(1)旱涝保收面积、农业化肥施用折纯量、农业机械总动力、农村用电量组成,贡献率为25.033%;第三主成分主要由农药使用量组成,贡献率为6.745%;第四主成分主要由农用塑料薄膜使用量组成,贡献率为4.720%。可以看出,水利投资在农业生产中占有重要的地位。(2)从主成分回归结果看,关中地区水利工工程、耕地等农业投资对农业生产效益都有着不同程度的影响。水利投资形成的有效灌溉面积与旱涝保湿面积弹性系数表现出正负交替现象,有效灌溉面积弹性系数在1980～1984 (-0.24)、1995～1999 (-0.63)年呈负值,有着比较明显的阻碍农业生产效益提高的现象,而在1985～1989(0.15)、1990～1994(0.20)、2005～2009 (0.56)、2009～2013 (0.23)这四个阶段年则处于正值,促进农业生产效益提高。旱涝保湿面积弹性系数只有在2000～2004 (-0.34)年这个阶段处于负值,其他阶段年处于正值。关中地区其他农业投入平均弹性系数分别为耕地(-0.8365)和劳动力投入(-0.1407)为负值,农用化肥(0.8342)、农业机械(0.1006)及农用塑料薄膜(0.0016)为正值,早期农村用电量(-17.2787)的平均弹性系数为负值,之后一直为正值(1.4313、1.0308、0.5814、0.1727、0.1910、1.0381) ; 2009年前农药的投入对农业生产的促进作用非常大,2009年之后对农业生产有严重的阻碍作用。(1)关中地区多数年份的粮食生产处于安全等级,部分年份的粮食生产处于基本安全级,个别年份的粮食生产处于临界安全级。说明关中地区在水利工程兴建条件下粮食生产总体上呈安全态势,关中地区的水利、耕地、化肥等农业生产投资对粮食生产是有极大的促进作用的。
[Abstract]:Water conservancy is the lifeblood of agriculture, the size of investment in water conservancy projects, the engineering management and scientific application of water conservancy projects can give full play to the actual benefits of the existing water resources. The construction and management of water conservancy projects are the important material conditions for ensuring the safety of agricultural production and accelerating the development of agricultural modernization. Under the background of accelerating the development of urbanization, a new problem is that the area of cultivated land is reduced and the quality of cultivated land is worse, which has seriously threatened the agricultural grain production in China. Under the background of the country's vigorous development of water conservancy projects, it is very urgent and necessary to study the investment benefit of agricultural engineering production under the construction of water conservancy projects. The Guanzhong area of Shaanxi province belongs to the semi arid and semi humid area, and the water resources are scarce. The investment and construction of water conservancy projects greatly affect the agricultural production in this area. In this paper, the relevant data of 1978~2013 years' agricultural production and water conservancy projects in Guanzhong area are selected to carry out the following research. First, the paper analyzes the water conservancy in Guanzhong area, the basic conditions of agricultural production, the status of other agricultural investment, the fluctuation of agricultural grain production, and the second, the analysis method of principal component analysis is used to analyze the increase of the construction of water conservancy projects. The effect of irrigation area, the moisture area of drought and waterlogging, the influence of agricultural production, chemical fertilizer, pesticide, manpower and so on on agricultural production, and the main component factors of agricultural production; third, establish the principal component regression model to analyze the influence and influence of water investment and other investment on the investment benefit of agricultural engineering production The main conclusions are as follows: (1) from the basis of the basic conditions, the water resources shortage in Guanzhong area is short, but the land is flat, it is more suitable for grain production in general. From the point of view of agricultural investment, water investment has been in the trend of growth, and the effective irrigation rate has reached up to now. To 43.46%, but the area of cultivated land has been decreasing, agricultural machinery, electricity consumption, pesticide, chemical fertilizer, agricultural film and other agricultural inputs have been increasing. From the situation of disaster, the area of grain disaster in Guanzhong area has been fluctuating, the average grain disaster rate and disaster rate are more than 50% of the sown area and 28%. from the grain fluctuation situation. The grain production in Guanzhong area has been fluctuating, and the fluctuation range is large and the fluctuation frequency is high. (2) the principal component analysis results show that there are four main components affecting grain production in Guanzhong area, the cumulative variance is 91.849%, the first principal component mainly consists of the effective irrigation area, the affected area, the main crop sown area, and the disaster area. The contribution rate of arable land is 55.351%, and the contribution rate of variance is up to 55.351%; second main components are mainly agricultural and forestry and herding and fishing employment, (1) the area of drought and water logging, agricultural chemical fertilizer application, total power of agricultural machinery, and rural electricity consumption, the contribution rate is 25.033%; third main components are composed of pesticide use, the contribution rate is 6.745%; fourth principal component main. In order to make up the use of agricultural plastic film, the contribution rate of 4.720%. can be seen that water conservancy investment occupies an important position in agricultural production. (2) from the results of the principal component regression, the agricultural investment in Guanzhong area and the agricultural investment have different influence on the agricultural production efficiency. The effective irrigation area and the effective irrigation area formed by water conservancy investment The elasticity coefficient of moisture area of drought and flood shows positive and negative alternation, the elastic coefficient of effective irrigation area is negative in 1980~1984 (-0.24) and 1995~1999 (-0.63) year, and there is a obvious phenomenon that hinders the improvement of agricultural production efficiency, while in 1985~1989 (0.15), 1990~1994 (0.20), 2005~2009 (0.56), 2009~2013 (0.23), 2009~2013 (0.23)) The average elasticity coefficient of wet area of drought and flood is only in negative value at this stage of 2000~2004 (-0.34), and the average elastic coefficient of other agricultural inputs in Guanzhong area is negative for cultivated land (-0.8365) and labor power input (-0.1407), agricultural fertilizer (0.8342), agriculture, respectively. The industrial machinery (0.1006) and the agricultural plastic film (0.0016) are positive. The average elastic coefficient of the early rural electricity consumption (-17.2787) is negative and has always been positive (1.4313,1.0308,0.5814,0.1727,0.1910,1.0381). The input of the pesticide to agricultural production before 2009 is very large, and the agricultural production is seriously hindered after 2009. (1) the grain production in most of the years in Guanzhong area is in the safety grade, the grain production in some years is in the basic safety grade and the grain production in a few years is at the critical safety level. It shows that the grain production in Guanzhong area is generally safe under the construction of water conservancy projects, and the agricultural production of water conservancy, cultivated land and chemical fertilizer in Guanzhong area. Investment plays a great role in promoting grain production.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.213

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