气候变化对非洲水资源和农业的影响

发布时间：2018-06-25 23:36

本文选题：非洲农业 + 气候变化　；参考：《中国农业气象》2016年03期

【摘要】：尽管非洲是世界上温室气体排放总量或人均排放量最少的地区,但在承受气候变化造成的恶劣影响方面首当其冲。气候变化已经给非洲的水资源、农业、生物多样性、人类健康和国家安全等带来诸多严重影响,粮食生产和水资源一直是非洲长期面临的两大难题,也是深受气候变化影响的两大领域。本文系统梳理了气候变化对非洲水资源系统和农业生产影响的研究成果和不足,以期为非洲气候变化影响评估工作提供一定参考和借鉴。已有的观测结果表明,气候变化导致非洲许多山脉冰川面积正在大范围缩减、大部分地区降水量有所减少,降雨的年际间分布也更为不稳定,通过水文模型的模拟预测,未来气候变化将进一步影响降水量和非洲部分地区河流的径流量,导致非洲水资源供给压力加大。同样,气候变化也给非洲农业生产带来了巨大的挑战,无论是观测结果分析,还是统计模型和作物模型等对不同气候情景和时间尺度下非洲农业的模拟研究,都显示气候变化对非洲农业以负面影响为主,导致非洲干旱加剧、生长季改变和粮食产量下降,并可能危及非洲的粮食安全。然而,现有研究结果还存在较多不确定性,其主要集中在未来气候情景数据、研究方法、数据的质量和数量等方面。与世界其它地区相比,非洲气候变化影响研究无论是研究的深度和广度都还较欠缺,需要在未来的研究中进一步加强,以探寻减缓气候变化对非洲水资源和农业不利影响的有效途径。
[Abstract]:Although Africa has the world's least greenhouse gas emissions or per capita emissions, it bears the brunt of the adverse effects of climate change. Climate change has had many serious impacts on Africa's water resources, agriculture, biodiversity, human health and national security. Food production and water resources have long been the two major challenges facing Africa. It is also a major area affected by climate change. This paper systematically reviews the research results and deficiencies of the impacts of climate change on African water resources system and agricultural production in order to provide some references for the assessment of climate change impacts in Africa. Existing observations indicate that climate change is leading to a widespread reduction in the area of glaciers in many mountains in Africa, a decrease in precipitation in most areas and a more unstable interannual distribution of rainfall, which is predicted through hydrological models. Future climate change will further affect precipitation and river runoff in parts of Africa, putting pressure on Africa's water supply. Similarly, climate change poses enormous challenges to agricultural production in Africa, both in terms of analysis of observations and modelling of African agriculture at different climate scenarios and time scales, such as statistical models and crop models, Both show that climate change has a major negative impact on African agriculture, exacerbating drought, changing the growth season and falling food production, and potentially endangering food security in Africa. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the present research results, which mainly focus on the future climate scenario data, research methods, data quality and quantity. Compared with other parts of the world, climate change impact studies in Africa are still relatively lacking in depth and breadth and need to be further strengthened in future research. To explore effective ways to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41171093;41471074) “十二五”科技支撑课题(2012BAC19B0101)
【分类号】：S162

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