极端天气、粮食产量波动与农业天气风险管理

发布时间：2018-07-03 15:23

本文选题：气候变化 + 气候风险　；参考：《江苏农业科学》2017年11期

【摘要】：在所有自然灾害中,气象灾害占80%以上,其中最主要的是农业气象灾害。阐述了气候变化与极端天气事件的关系,以及二者带来的中国农业生产中的主要气候风险。采用面板数据模型,选取湖北省78个县市1990—2009年与粮食有关的生产数据和气候数据,实证分析气候因子对粮食产量的影响。结果表明,平均气温、降水、日照变化均存在对粮食产量影响的最大值,影响呈倒"U"形结构,说明粮食生长需要稳定的气候条件,气候风险会对粮食生产产生负面影响。管理天气风险的传统农业保险存在信息不对称等问题,天气指数保险和天气衍生品作为农业天气风险管理的重要创新工具,能够化解农业保险所面临的道德风险问题,成为转移农业天气风险的有效路径。
[Abstract]:In all natural disasters, meteorological disasters account for more than 80%, the most important of which is agricultural meteorological disasters. The relationship between climate change and extreme weather events and the main climatic risks in Chinese agricultural production caused by climate change and extreme weather events are discussed. Using panel data model, the grain production data and climate data from 1990 to 2009 in 78 counties in Hubei Province were selected to analyze the effect of climate factors on grain yield. The results showed that the changes of mean temperature, precipitation and sunshine had the maximum effect on grain yield, and the influence was in the form of inverted "U" shape, indicating that the growth of grain needed stable climatic conditions, and the climate risk would have a negative impact on grain production. Traditional agricultural insurance for managing weather risk has problems such as information asymmetry. As an important innovative tool of agricultural weather risk management, weather index insurance and weather derivatives can solve the moral hazard problems faced by agricultural insurance. To become an effective way to shift agricultural weather risks.
【作者单位】：湖北工程学院经济与管理学院;湖北省武汉市科技金融创新促进中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(编号:71503073) 教育部人文社会科学青年基金(编号:16YJC630002;14YJC630021) 湖北工程学院科学研究项目(编号:201618)
【分类号】：F326.11;F842.66;S42

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