内蒙古牧民气候变化感知与适应性研究

发布时间：2018-07-06 09:50

本文选题：气候变化 + 感知　；参考：《内蒙古大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：全球变化中最突出的是气候变化,气候变化预计会对降水与温度格局产生更为引人注目的影响,特别是对干旱地区的社会经济系统和自然生态系统的方方面面产生深远的影响。内蒙古地处干旱半干旱区域,环境脆弱,易变,对气候变化敏感。内蒙古草原是欧亚大陆草原的重要组成部分,是我国北方温带草原中最具有代表性的地带性植被类型,是我国牧区的主体。高度依赖于自然资源的草原畜牧业对气候变化相当敏感与脆弱,内蒙古牧区应加强应对气候变化的适应能力。结合常规气象监测数据,采用半结构式访谈和开放式问卷调查、二项式逻辑回归、多元概率模型(MVP)以及地理信息系统技术,论文对内蒙古牧区四个生态系统类型,即草甸草原区(呼伦贝尔市)、典型草原区(锡林郭勒盟)荒漠草原区(四子王旗)与荒漠(阿拉善盟)进行了调查,重点关注该区域牧民对气候变化的感知、对气候变化的适应以及影响牧民认为适应政策有效性的因素三个方面。论文主要结论如下:(1)1981～2014年,研究区域的年平均气温均呈显著的上升趋势(P0.05),呼伦贝尔市、锡林郭勒盟、阿拉善盟与四子王旗的年均温变化率分别为:0.26℃/10年、0.36℃/10年、0.41℃/10年与0.46℃/10年;冬季均温只有呼伦贝尔市呈下降趋势,变化率为0.36℃/10年(p0.05),其他区域冬季平均气温呈不显著的上升趋势;年降水量变化均不显著(P0.05)。(2)牧民对气候变化的感知并不完全准确,与历史变化趋势不完全一致。牧民对气候变化的感知存在区域差异,生态与经济背景的差异性,使得牧民对气候变化产生不同的感知;同时牧民对气候变化的感知受到了"草畜双承包责任制"与设立"公共草场"措施实施的影响。(3）牧民应对气候变化所采取的短期应急适应措施主要是购买饲料圈养、出售牲畜、借贷、迁移、畜种改良以及保证牲畜充足的饮水与加强疾病防控,而"联户经营"和建立"公共草场"也许是更适于内蒙古牧业区域应对气候变化的长期的适应策略。(4）从牧民的角度出发,在内蒙古牧区陆续出台的一系列草场政策中,"草畜平衡"政策是牧民认同的、可以维持草场资源可持续利用及进行气候变化适应的最有效策略。(5)区域背景的差异性、牧民自身状况和牧业生产信息是牧民做出适应决策的主要影响因素。年均温与年降水量越高,牧民越倾向于采取"禁牧"与"传统的游牧"作为适应措施。男性为户主的家庭更愿意选择政府出台的政策作为适应措施,随着户主的受教育程度的提高,他们更愿意根据自家情况选择适合、合理的措施来主动适应;年长者会更支持"草畜平衡"政策的实施。生计方式单一与年净收入的增加,使牧民不倾向于采取政府的政策。(6)牧民在进行气候变化的主要限制因素为资金匮乏、水资源不足、基础设施不完善、知识技术欠缺与劳动力不足;而提高生计多样性、增加畜牧生产科技培训和技术指导以及保证畜牧业生产实践活动信息来源畅通是提高牧民适应能力的方法,因地制宜、自下而上的管理并尊重牧民的自愿性、主动性、和创造性,才是制定政策的最佳方式。
[Abstract]:The most prominent global change is climate change. Climate change is expected to have a more dramatic impact on the pattern of precipitation and temperature, especially in all aspects of the social and economic systems and natural ecosystems in arid areas. Inner Mongolia is located in arid and semi-arid areas, the environment is fragile, changeable, and climate change is changed. The Inner Mongolia grassland is an important part of the Eurasian steppe. It is the most representative zonal vegetation type in the temperate grassland in the north of China. It is the main body of the pastoral areas in China. The grassland animal husbandry highly dependent on natural resources is very sensitive and fragile to climate change, and the adaptation of climate change should be strengthened in Inner Mongolia pastoral area. Combining with the conventional meteorological monitoring data, the paper uses semi structural interview and open questionnaire survey, binomial logistic regression, multivariate probability model (MVP) and geographic information system technology. The paper has four ecological system types in Inner Mongolia pastoral area, namely meadow steppe region (Hulun Buir), and the typical steppe region (Xilinguole Meng) desert steppe region (four children) Wang Qi) conducted an investigation with the desert (Alxa League), focusing on three aspects of the region's perception of climate change, adaptation to climate change and factors affecting the effectiveness of pastoral adaptation to policy. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) 1981~2014 years, the annual average temperature in the research area has a significant upward trend (P0.05). The annual average temperature change rates of Hulun Buir, Xilinguole Meng, Alxa League and Siziwangqi are 0.26, 0.36, /10, 0.41, /10 and 0.46, respectively. In winter, the average temperature in Hulun Buir is decreasing, the rate of change is 0.36 /10 years (P0.05), and the average temperature in winter in the region is not significantly rising. The change of quantity was not significant (P0.05). (2) the perception of herdsmen's perception of climate change was not completely accurate and not exactly consistent with the trend of historical change. There were regional differences and differences in ecological and economic background of herdsmen's perception of climate change, which made the herdsmen have different perception of climate change; and the perception of herdsmen to climate change was "grass". (3) the short-term emergency adaptation measures adopted by the herdsmen to cope with the climate change mainly include the purchase of feed captivity, the sale of livestock, the loan, the migration, the improvement of the livestock, the guarantee of adequate livestock drinking water and the prevention and control of the increase of the disease, and the "joint operation" and the establishment of a "public pasture" It is a long-term adaptation strategy that is more suitable for Inner Mongolia pastoral areas to cope with climate change. (4) from the perspective of herdsmen, in a series of grassland policies in succession in Inner Mongolia pastoral areas, the policy of "balance of livestock and livestock" is the most effective strategy for maintaining the sustainable utilization of grassland resources and adapting to climate change. (5) regional back. The difference of landscape, the status of the herdsmen and the information of livestock production are the main factors affecting the adaptation of the herdsmen. The higher the annual average temperature and the annual precipitation, the more the herdsmen tend to adopt the "forbidden grazing" and "traditional nomadic" as the adaptation measures. The family of male headed by the male is more willing to choose the policy of the government to be adopted as the adaptation measures, with the head of the household. They are more willing to choose suitable and reasonable measures to adapt themselves according to their own situation; the elderly will support the implementation of the policy of "balance of livestock and livestock". A single livelihood and an increase in annual net income make the herdsmen not inclined to adopt a government policy. (6) the main restrictive factors for the herdsmen in the climate change are funded. Lack of gold, insufficient water resources, imperfect infrastructure, lack of knowledge and technology and inadequate labor force; increasing the diversity of livelihoods, increasing scientific and technological training and technical guidance for livestock production, and ensuring unimpeded information sources of animal husbandry practice activities are the methods to improve the adaptability of herdsmen, local conditions, bottom-up management and respect for Herdsmen Voluntariness, initiative and creativity are the best ways to make policies.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.6;S811.1

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