基于脱钩指数的中国现代农业评价体系研究

发布时间：2018-07-26 11:30

【摘要】：现代农业是农业的发展方向和趋势。从现代农业的定义和内涵出发,研究现代农业评价方法,发现已有的评价指标体系存在主观性和片面性的问题。在总结相关研究的基础上,使用脱钩指数分析方法和控制方程(IPAT方程),将农业总产值作为驱动力,选取16个与农业生产直接相关的指标作为分析因子,核算2000—2014年中国农业总产值与这16个指标的脱钩指数。然后,分析这16个指标与现代农业的相关性,计算2000—2014年中国现代农业发展水平的评价指数。这一时期,中国现代农业发展水平在2009年达到阶段峰值之后,2010——2014年现代农业水平有所下降。中国现代农业水平提高的主要推动因素是农业生产性固定资产和国家财政对农业支出的持续增长,而造成2010年之后中国现代农业水平下降的原因,是国家财政用于农业支出增长速度的大幅下降,以及农业技术投入速度的下降。
[Abstract]:Modern agriculture is the development direction and trend of agriculture. Based on the definition and connotation of modern agriculture, this paper studies the evaluation methods of modern agriculture and finds that the existing evaluation index system is subjective and one-sidedness. On the basis of summarizing the related research, using decoupling index analysis method and control equation (IPAT equation), the total agricultural output value is taken as the driving force, and 16 indexes directly related to agricultural production are selected as analysis factors. Accounting for the decoupling index of China's total agricultural output value from these 16 indicators in 2000-2014. Then, the correlation between the 16 indexes and modern agriculture is analyzed, and the evaluation index of the development level of modern agriculture in China from 2000 to 2014 is calculated. During this period, the development level of modern agriculture in China declined from 2010 to 2014 after reaching its peak in 2009. The main driving factors for the improvement of China's modern agricultural level are the sustained growth of agricultural productive fixed assets and state finance expenditure on agriculture, and the reasons for the decline in China's modern agricultural level after 2010. Is the national financial expenditure on agriculture growth rate of decline, as well as the speed of agricultural technology investment.
【作者单位】：中山大学广东决策科学研究院;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金项目(2016M600704)
【分类号】：F320.1

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