多模式集合模拟气候变化对玉米产量的影响

发布时间：2018-07-27 12:14

【摘要】：气候模式驱动作物模型是气候变化影响评估的主要手段。但是,单一气候模式输出和作物模型的结构差异使得研究结果存在不确定性。多模式集合的概率预估可以有效减少研究结果的不确定性。为此,本文利用1981—2009年东北地区海伦、长岭、本溪3地区农业气象站的历史气象资料和玉米作物数据,分别建立了作物统计模型并验证了APSIM机理模型在研究区域的适用性。在此基础上,与CMIP5在RCP4.5情景下的8个全球模式结合,尝试基于多模式集合评估了未来2010—2039年时段和2040—2069年时段气候变化对玉米产量的可能影响(相对于1976—2005年基准时段)。研究结果表明,APSIM模型对玉米生长发育和产量形成有很好的模拟能力。玉米生育期的模拟误差(RMSE)为3~4 d,产量的RMSE为0.6~0.8 t?hm~(-2)。建立的产量统计模型表明,玉米出苗阶段(5月中旬)的温度增加对产量增加有积极作用,而开花到成熟阶段(7月中旬到9月上旬)的温度和降水的增加、光照的不足均不利于产量增加。与1976—2005年基准时段相比,气候因素影响下2010—2039年玉米产量减少3.8%(海伦)~7.4%(本溪),减产的概率为64%(长岭)~73%(本溪);2040—2069年时段减产6.4%(海伦)~10.5%(本溪),减产的概率为74%(海伦)~83%(本溪)。未来2010—2039年时段和2040—2069年时段基于机理模型模拟的产量降低分别为6.6%(海伦)~8.9%(本溪)和9.7%(海伦)~13.7%(本溪),均高于相应时段基于统计模型得到的0.9%(海伦)~6.0%(本溪)和2.0%(长岭)~7.3%(本溪)减产结果。
[Abstract]:Climate model driven crop model is the main means of climate change impact assessment. However, the structural differences between the single climate model and the crop model make the results uncertain. The probabilistic prediction of multi-mode sets can effectively reduce the uncertainty of the research results. Therefore, based on the historical meteorological data and corn crop data from Helen, Changling and Benxi agricultural meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1981 to 2009, the crop statistical models were established and the applicability of APSIM mechanism model in the study area was verified. On this basis, combined with eight global models of CMIP5 under RCP4.5 scenario, the possible impacts of climate change on maize yield in the future period 2010-2039 and 2040-2069 are evaluated based on multi-model set (compared with the baseline period 1976-2005). The results showed that APSIM model could simulate maize growth and yield formation. The simulation error of maize growth period was 3 ~ 4 days, and the RMSE of yield was 0.60.8 t ~ (-1) hm ~ (-2). The established yield statistical model showed that the temperature increase of maize seedling stage (mid-May) had a positive effect on the yield increase, while the temperature and precipitation increased from flowering to maturity stage (from mid-July to early September). The lack of light was not conducive to the increase of yield. Compared with the base period of 1976-2005, the maize yield decreased by 3.8% (Helen) and 7.4% (Benxi) in 2010-2039 under the influence of climatic factors, and the probability of reduction was 64% (Changling), 73% (Benxi), 6.4% (Helen) 10.5% (Benxi) and 74% (Helen) 83% (Benxi) in the period of 2040-2069. In the future period 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, the yield reduction based on mechanism model simulation was 6.6% (Helen), 8.9% (Benxi) and 9.7% (Helen), 13.7% (Benxi), respectively, which was higher than that of 0.9% (Helen) / 6.0% (Benxi) and 0.9% (Helen) / 6.0% (Benxi), respectively, in the future period of 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, respectively. The yield of 2.0% (Changling) and 7.3% (Benxi) was decreased.
【作者单位】：中国气象科学研究院;上海市气象科学研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41505097) 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406026)资助~~
【分类号】：S162.53;S513

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