气候变化对年代际东北玉米冷害影响分析

发布时间：2018-07-27 14:53

【摘要】：[目的]气候变化对中国粮食主产区的东北地区产生显著影响,加强气候变化背景下东北作物冷害分析研究对保障粮食生产安全具有重要作用和意义。[方法]利用1981~2010年中国地面气温0.5°×0.5°格点数据集,以各年代东北玉米生长季(5~9月)的月平均气温、月平均气温之和以及近30年(1981~2010年)各年代月平均气温之和距平等主要气象要素分析东北气候变化趋势,根据《北方春玉米冷害评估技术规范》(QX/T 167-2012)行业标准,进一步对1980s~2010s各年代各等级东北玉米冷害发生时空变化进行分析和区划,结合有关东北历史冷害记载进行对照分析。[结果]东北玉米生长季气候趋暖明显,热量增加,近30年东北玉米各等级冷害发生年数、区域及频率都呈显著减少趋势,20世纪80年代东北几乎每年都有冷害发生,20世纪90年代为冷害发生转折点,年代后段(1996~2000年)冷害年数较前段(1991~1995年)明显减少,到21世纪10年代冷害年数进一步减少,轻度冷害区主要分布在黑龙江省中北部和东南部地区,其发生频率也小(0.1~0.2次/年),中度及重度冷害只在局部发生,冷害的显著减少为东北玉米连续丰产增收创造了十分有利条件。[结论]气候变暖背景下,东北玉米冷害减少,但个别年份还发生重度以上冷害(如2002、2003、2009年),冷害发生仍具不确定性。
[Abstract]:[objective] Climate change has a significant impact on the northeast region of China's main grain production areas, and it is of great importance and significance to strengthen the analysis of crop chilling damage in Northeast China under the background of climate change to ensure the safety of grain production. [methods] based on the data set of 0.5 掳脳 0.5 掳surface temperature in China from 1981 to 2010, the monthly mean temperature of maize growing season (May to September) in Northeast China was calculated. The sum of monthly mean temperature and the sum anomaly of monthly mean temperature in recent 30 years (1981 ~ 2010) were analyzed, and the trend of climate change in Northeast China was analyzed. According to the Industrial Standard (QX/T 167-2012), Furthermore, the temporal and spatial changes of chilling damage of Northeast maize in different grades of 1980s~2010s were analyzed and regionalized, and the records of historical chilling injury in Northeast China were compared and analyzed. [results] in the growing season of Northeast Maize, the climate tended to warm obviously, the heat increased, and in the last 30 years, the number of years of different grades of chilling injury occurred in Northeast Maize. The region and frequency showed a marked decreasing trend. In the 1980s, cold damage occurred almost every year in Northeast China. In the 1990s, it was the turning point of chilling injury. The number of years of chilling injury in the latter part of the year (1996-2000) was obviously lower than that in the previous period (1991-1995). By October of 21st century, the number of years of chilling injury was further reduced. The area of mild chilling injury was mainly distributed in the middle and southeast regions of Heilongjiang Province, and the frequency of chilling injury was also small (0.1% 0.2 times per year), and the moderate and severe chilling injury occurred only locally. The significant reduction of chilling injury creates very favorable conditions for the continuous high yield and income increase of maize in Northeast China. [conclusion] under the background of climate warming, the chilling damage of Northeast maize was reduced, but severe chilling injury occurred in some years (e.g. 2002,2003,2009), and the occurrence of chilling injury was still uncertain.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学地理科学学部;中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室;福建省宁德市气象局;
【基金】：国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项“气候变化背景下北方主要旱地作物脆弱性及其评价技术”(GYHY201506016)
【分类号】：S426;S513

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