基于VAR模型分析径流对降水和水土保持措施的响应

发布时间：2018-08-04 13:29

【摘要】：确定自然及人类活动对径流的影响程度是水文水资源科学的研究难点。根据1996-2012年黄土高原三条黄河支流的径流、降水及水土保持措施面积,采用VAR模型方法评价降雨及水土保持措施对径流变化的作用程度。结果表明:年径流量对年降水量和水土保持措施面积的响应均具有滞后性,对当年各措施面积变化均不响应;各水土保持措施对年径流量的影响不是一成不变的,15年滞后期内径流有增有减,时间越长对径流变化的影响越小。1996-2012年间林地是减少径流的主导因素;采用方差分解可知,各因素相对贡献程度依次为:草地封禁林地梯田坝地降水。从长期来看,水土保持措施对径流量减少的贡献可达60%以上,随着时间的推移,贡献度有所增加。径流量减小是水土保持措施持续增加的结果。
[Abstract]:Determining the influence of natural and human activities on runoff is a difficult point in hydrology and water resources science. According to the runoff, precipitation and soil and water conservation measures area of three tributaries of the Yellow River in the Loess Plateau from 1996 to 2012, VAR model was used to evaluate the effect of rainfall and soil and water conservation measures on runoff change. The results show that the response of annual runoff to annual precipitation and soil and water conservation measure area is lag, but it is not responsive to the change of each measure area in that year. The effects of soil and water conservation measures on the annual runoff are not constant, the runoff increases and decreases in the 15 years lag period, the longer the time is, the smaller the impact on runoff change. The forestland is the dominant factor to reduce runoff in 1996-2012. The relative contribution degree of each factor is as follows: grassland fencing forestland terrace dam land precipitation. In the long run, soil and water conservation measures can contribute more than 60% to the reduction of runoff, and the contribution degree increases with the passage of time. The decrease of runoff is the result of continuous increase of soil and water conservation measures.
【作者单位】：西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所;贵州大学明德学院;中国科学院-水利部水土保持研究所;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402401) 国家自然科学基金项目(41671285)
【分类号】：S157

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