江西农业气象灾害的时空演变及其对ENSO特征值的响应
发布时间：2018-08-17 18:27
【摘要】：利用线性分析和灰色关联分析法,分析了1970-2014年江西省主要气象灾害的时空演变,及其对主要农作物总产量影响的大小及各项ENSO特征指数对总受灾面积的影响。结果表明:(1)受灾率在30%以下的发生概率比较高,达86.67%。受灾率每10 a增加2.858%,成灾率则每10 a增加1.639%。其中,洪涝、低温、风雹、旱灾受灾率每10 a分别增加2.244%,-0.034%,1.049%和0.59%。(2)对主要农作物总产量影响大小依次为洪涝低温风雹旱灾。(3)洪涝灾害主要分布在赣东北、赣北赣中地区,区域性和阶段性干旱严重,主要出现在中南部,旱灾受灾率总体呈北少南多的区域分布特征。(4)ENSO特征值对农业气象灾害受灾面积的影响大小总体上表现为Nino 1+2Nino 3Nino 3.4Nino 4,其中Nino 1+2和Nino 3区海温距平对江西省的农业气象灾害影响最大,应予以重点监测。
[Abstract]:By using linear analysis and grey correlation analysis, the temporal and spatial evolution of major meteorological disasters in Jiangxi Province from 1970 to 2014, the magnitude of their influence on the total yield of main crops and the influence of each ENSO characteristic index on the total disaster area were analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) the probability of occurrence of the disaster rate below 30% is 86.67. The disaster rate increased 2.858% every 10 years, and the disaster rate increased 1.639 9% every 10 years. Among them, flood, low temperature, wind hail and drought disaster rate increased by 2.244% -0.034% and 0.59% respectively every 10 years. (2) the influence on the total yield of main crops was flood, low temperature, wind, hail and drought. (3) the flood and waterlogging disaster mainly distributed in northeast Jiangxi and central Jiangxi province. Regional and periodic droughts are severe, mainly in the south-central part of the country. (4) the effect of ENSO characteristic value on the area affected by agrometeorological disaster is Nino 1 2Nino 3Nino 3.4Nino 4, in which Nino 1 2 and Nino 3 area sea surface temperature anomaly on agriculture in Jiangxi Province. (4) the drought disaster rate is generally more regional distribution. (4) the effect of ENSO characteristic value on agricultural meteorological disaster area is Nino 1 2Nino 3Nino 3.4Nino 4, in which Nino 12 and Nino 3 area sea surface temperature anomaly to agriculture of Jiangxi Province. Industrial meteorological disasters have the greatest impact, Emphasis should be placed on monitoring.
【作者单位】： 江西省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所;南昌县土壤肥料站;
【基金】：农业部农村经济研究中心基金项目 江西省农科院科技创新及成果转化基金项目(2013CJJ010)~~
【分类号】：S42
本文编号：2188511
[Abstract]:By using linear analysis and grey correlation analysis, the temporal and spatial evolution of major meteorological disasters in Jiangxi Province from 1970 to 2014, the magnitude of their influence on the total yield of main crops and the influence of each ENSO characteristic index on the total disaster area were analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) the probability of occurrence of the disaster rate below 30% is 86.67. The disaster rate increased 2.858% every 10 years, and the disaster rate increased 1.639 9% every 10 years. Among them, flood, low temperature, wind hail and drought disaster rate increased by 2.244% -0.034% and 0.59% respectively every 10 years. (2) the influence on the total yield of main crops was flood, low temperature, wind, hail and drought. (3) the flood and waterlogging disaster mainly distributed in northeast Jiangxi and central Jiangxi province. Regional and periodic droughts are severe, mainly in the south-central part of the country. (4) the effect of ENSO characteristic value on the area affected by agrometeorological disaster is Nino 1 2Nino 3Nino 3.4Nino 4, in which Nino 1 2 and Nino 3 area sea surface temperature anomaly on agriculture in Jiangxi Province. (4) the drought disaster rate is generally more regional distribution. (4) the effect of ENSO characteristic value on agricultural meteorological disaster area is Nino 1 2Nino 3Nino 3.4Nino 4, in which Nino 12 and Nino 3 area sea surface temperature anomaly to agriculture of Jiangxi Province. Industrial meteorological disasters have the greatest impact, Emphasis should be placed on monitoring.
【作者单位】： 江西省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所;南昌县土壤肥料站;
【基金】：农业部农村经济研究中心基金项目 江西省农科院科技创新及成果转化基金项目(2013CJJ010)~~
【分类号】：S42
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