产量红线与耕地红线耦合研究
发布时间：2018-08-19 05:58
【摘要】：基于实际粮食产量与抛荒耕地种植粮食作物条件下粮食总产量关系的分析方法有助于促进耕地红线制度改进。依据全国粮食总产量、种植面积与耕地面积数据,构造2016-2033年粮食产量与耕地面积红线耦合的基本、法定、过渡、新型与理想耦合红线标准;分析阶段性耦合与可持续耦合两种升级路径。研究表明:2001-2015年,全国耕地面积与粮食产量耦合不足。据此,提出以新增建设用地指标与抛荒治理面积挂钩的政策建议;在抛荒比例11.12%的条件下,新增单位面积建设用地,治理28.85倍抛荒耕地;2017、2021、2025、2029、2033年分别实现有效利用1.200×10~8hm~2、1.243×10~8hm~2、1.279×10~8hm~2、1.314×10~8hm~2、1.349×10~8hm~2耕地,粮食总产量分别比基期增加4.838×10~6、2.4190×10~7、4.354 2×10~7、5.321 8×10~7、8.824 6×10~7t;红线耦合系数分别达到0.882 471、0.909 740、0.937 008、0.950 643与1;有效利用耕地增加12.5%,粮食总产量提升14.2%。
[Abstract]:The analysis method based on the relationship between the actual grain yield and the total grain yield under the condition of growing grain crops on abandoned cultivated land will help to improve the red line system of cultivated land. Based on the data of total grain yield, planting area and cultivated land area, the basic, legal, transitional, new and ideal coupling red line standard of grain yield and cultivated land area in 2016-2033 is constructed. This paper analyzes the two upgrade paths of stage coupling and sustainable coupling. The study shows that the coupling between cultivated land area and grain yield in China from 2001 to 2015 is insufficient. Under the condition of 11.12% of abandoned land per unit area, the effective utilization of 1.200 脳 10 ~ (8) 脳 10 ~ (8) h ~ (m ~ (-1) ~ (2) ~ (1.279) 脳 10 ~ (8) h ~ (-1) 脳 10 ~ (8) hm ~ (2) ~ (2) 脳 10 ~ (9) 脳 10~8hm~2 land can be realized respectively by controlling 28.85 times of abandoned land in 2017, 2025 ~ (2029) and 2033 years, respectively, according to the policy suggestion of linking the index of new construction land with the area of abandoned land under the condition of 11.12% of abandoned land. The total grain yield increased by 4.838 脳 10 ~ (6) C ~ (6) C ~ (2.4190) 脳 10 ~ (10) C ~ (7) ~ 4.354 2 脳 10 ~ (10) ~ (7) ~ 7 ~ (5.321) 脳 10 ~ (7) ~ (7) ~ 8 脳 10 ~ (7) 脳 10 ~ (7) t respectively, the coupling coefficient of red line reached to 0.882 471t ~ (0.909) 7409 ~ 0.937 0080.950 643 and 1 respectively, and the effective utilization of cultivated land increased by 12.5m, and the total grain yield increased by 14.2g.
【作者单位】： 西安文理学院经济管理学院;
【基金】：2017年西安社会科学规划课题(17J113) 安徽大学农村改革与经济社会发展研究院资助(ADNY201503)
【分类号】：F323.211;F326.11
，
本文编号：2190838
[Abstract]:The analysis method based on the relationship between the actual grain yield and the total grain yield under the condition of growing grain crops on abandoned cultivated land will help to improve the red line system of cultivated land. Based on the data of total grain yield, planting area and cultivated land area, the basic, legal, transitional, new and ideal coupling red line standard of grain yield and cultivated land area in 2016-2033 is constructed. This paper analyzes the two upgrade paths of stage coupling and sustainable coupling. The study shows that the coupling between cultivated land area and grain yield in China from 2001 to 2015 is insufficient. Under the condition of 11.12% of abandoned land per unit area, the effective utilization of 1.200 脳 10 ~ (8) 脳 10 ~ (8) h ~ (m ~ (-1) ~ (2) ~ (1.279) 脳 10 ~ (8) h ~ (-1) 脳 10 ~ (8) hm ~ (2) ~ (2) 脳 10 ~ (9) 脳 10~8hm~2 land can be realized respectively by controlling 28.85 times of abandoned land in 2017, 2025 ~ (2029) and 2033 years, respectively, according to the policy suggestion of linking the index of new construction land with the area of abandoned land under the condition of 11.12% of abandoned land. The total grain yield increased by 4.838 脳 10 ~ (6) C ~ (6) C ~ (2.4190) 脳 10 ~ (10) C ~ (7) ~ 4.354 2 脳 10 ~ (10) ~ (7) ~ 7 ~ (5.321) 脳 10 ~ (7) ~ (7) ~ 8 脳 10 ~ (7) 脳 10 ~ (7) t respectively, the coupling coefficient of red line reached to 0.882 471t ~ (0.909) 7409 ~ 0.937 0080.950 643 and 1 respectively, and the effective utilization of cultivated land increased by 12.5m, and the total grain yield increased by 14.2g.
【作者单位】： 西安文理学院经济管理学院;
【基金】：2017年西安社会科学规划课题(17J113) 安徽大学农村改革与经济社会发展研究院资助(ADNY201503)
【分类号】：F323.211;F326.11
，
本文编号：2190838
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