黑龙江省降水变化趋势及其对农业生产的影响研究
发布时间：2018-08-20 11:05
【摘要】：基于黑龙江省36个气象站的降水量数据和12个地级市及1个地区的农业相关数据,采用改进的MannKendall检验法,通过计算年降水量和季节降水量的趋势检验统计量Z值,揭示了研究区降水量的变化趋势,进而分析了农业旱涝灾害的空间分布。结果表明,黑龙江省大部分地区冬、春季节降水量呈现上升趋势,夏、秋季节降水量及年降水量均呈下降趋势。黑龙江省农业受涝灾影响大于旱灾,涝灾主要分布在黑龙江省东部的双鸭山市、鹤岗市和佳木斯市,其未来降水量的下降趋势可在一定程度上缓解涝灾产生的危害;旱灾主要分布在黑龙江省西部的齐齐哈尔地区,其未来降水量的增加趋势可在一定程度上缓解旱灾产生的危害。
[Abstract]:Based on the precipitation data of 36 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province and the agricultural data of 12 prefecture-level cities and 1 region, the improved Mann Kendall test method was used to test the statistical value Z by calculating the trend of annual and seasonal precipitation, revealing the variation trend of precipitation in the study area, and then analyzing the spatial distribution of agricultural drought and flood disasters. The results showed that the precipitation in winter and spring increased in most areas of Heilongjiang Province, and decreased in summer and autumn as well as annual precipitation. The drought disaster mainly distributes in Qiqihar area in the west of Heilongjiang Province, and the increasing trend of precipitation in the future can alleviate the harm of drought to a certain extent.
【作者单位】： 东北农业大学水利与建筑学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51479032,51579044) 黑龙江省杰出青年基金项目(JC201402) 黑龙江省长江学者后备支持计划 黑龙江省水利厅科技项目(201318,201503)
【分类号】：S161.6
，
本文编号：2193352
[Abstract]:Based on the precipitation data of 36 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province and the agricultural data of 12 prefecture-level cities and 1 region, the improved Mann Kendall test method was used to test the statistical value Z by calculating the trend of annual and seasonal precipitation, revealing the variation trend of precipitation in the study area, and then analyzing the spatial distribution of agricultural drought and flood disasters. The results showed that the precipitation in winter and spring increased in most areas of Heilongjiang Province, and decreased in summer and autumn as well as annual precipitation. The drought disaster mainly distributes in Qiqihar area in the west of Heilongjiang Province, and the increasing trend of precipitation in the future can alleviate the harm of drought to a certain extent.
【作者单位】： 东北农业大学水利与建筑学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51479032,51579044) 黑龙江省杰出青年基金项目(JC201402) 黑龙江省长江学者后备支持计划 黑龙江省水利厅科技项目(201318,201503)
【分类号】：S161.6
，
本文编号：2193352
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