长江中下游地区单季稻和夏玉米涝渍灾害风险分析

发布时间：2018-09-13 09:31

【摘要】：本文基于1961-2010年长江中下游地区内426个气象站点的逐日降水数据,以湖北省单站洪涝等级标准为初始指标,对该指标临界值在-50~100mm范围内进行同步增减,结合该区7省(市)的洪涝历史灾情记载和农业洪涝受灾面积,采用逐步剔除的方法筛选指标,构建分省农业洪涝等级指标并验证指标的合理性,分析该区近50年农业洪涝灾害的时空变化。基于长江中下游地区单季稻种植区297站点和夏玉米种植区91站点1961-2015年逐日降水数据,耦合作物生育期和涝渍灾情数据,统计分生育时段、分等级洪涝灾害样本,采用偏相关分析、多元线性回归、正态性检验、样本均值区间估计等方法,借助SPSS和ArcGIS软件,分别基于过程降雨量和有效降雨量的95%可信区间的下限值,构建了分省单季稻分生育时段洪涝灾害等级指标和夏玉米分生育时段涝渍灾害等级指标,并验证了指标的合理性,依据构建的指标对1961-2010年种植区内单季稻和夏玉米分生育时段涝渍灾害进行时空分析和风险分析。主要结论如下:(1)近50年,农业洪涝灾害发生总体呈增加的趋势,但不同区域和年代际的差异明显;农业洪涝多发区主要位于在江西中北部、江汉平原、浙江沿海,以及安徽、江西和浙江3省交界地带;呈现明显的江南多、江北少的分布特征;20世纪60年代至80年代农业洪涝发生次数相对平稳,90年代洪涝明显增多,21世纪初洪涝又相对减少。(2)近50年,单季稻洪涝灾害的多发区主要位于鄱阳湖、浙江沿海、及恩施张家界一带;灾害总体呈增加趋势,尤以移栽期至孕穗期的增加趋势明显。移栽-分蘖期单季稻洪涝灾害风险概率高值区主要位于鄱阳湖和黄山一带、恩施、黄冈等地区;拔节-孕穗期和抽穗-成熟期大部分地区的洪涝风险概率低于4%。移栽-分蘖期单季稻洪涝灾害风险指数普遍较高,基本在0.6以上;拔节期至成熟期,风险指数高值区主要位于浙江沿海地区,其余大部分地区处于低值区,风险指数基本低于0.3。(3)近50年,同一生育时段夏玉米涝渍灾害发生次数随灾害等级增大而减少。涝渍灾害的多发区主要位于沿江、沿淮和沿海地区,随着夏玉米生育进程的增加,灾害多发区总体随雨带逐步北移。夏玉米出苗期至抽雄期涝渍灾害的发生在总体上呈增加趋势,抽雄-成熟期则以减少的趋势为主。同一生育时段夏玉米各等级涝渍灾害风险概率的空间分布基本一致,且随着灾害等级的增大,风险概率高值区逐渐缩小。随着生育进程的增加,涝渍灾害风险指数的高值区逐渐由西南向东北移动。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily precipitation data of 426 meteorological stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2010, this paper takes the single station flood grade standard in Hubei Province as the initial index, and synchronously increases or decreases the critical value of the index in the range of -50 ~ 100 mm. Based on the historical records of flood and waterlogging and the area affected by agricultural flood in 7 provinces (cities) in this area, the index of agricultural flood grade is constructed and the rationality of the index is verified by using the method of selecting the index step by step. The temporal and spatial changes of agricultural flood and waterlogging in this area in recent 50 years are analyzed. Based on the daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2015 at 297 stations of single-cropping rice planting area in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and 91 stations of summer corn planting area, the data of crop growth period and waterlogging disaster were coupled, and the samples of flood and waterlogging disaster were counted. Using partial correlation analysis, multivariate linear regression, normality test, interval estimation of sample mean, and using SPSS and ArcGIS software, based on the lower limit of 95% confidence interval of process rainfall and effective rainfall, respectively. The index of flood and waterlogging disaster grade during the growing period of single cropping rice in different provinces and the waterlogging disaster grade index of summer maize in growing period were constructed, and the rationality of the indexes was verified. According to the constructed indexes, the waterlogging disasters of single-cropping rice and summer maize in the planting area from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed in time and space and the risk was analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) in the last 50 years, the occurrence of agricultural flood and waterlogging has a general increasing trend, but the difference between different regions and decades is obvious, and the agricultural flood prone areas are mainly located in central and northern Jiangxi, Jianghan Plain, Zhejiang coastal area, and Anhui Province. The distribution characteristics of the three provinces in Jiangxi Province and Zhejiang Province are more in the south of the Yangtze River and less in the northern part of the Yangtze River. The frequency of agricultural flooding in the 1960s to 1980s has increased relatively steadily, and the floods in the early 1990s have increased significantly. (2) the floods in the early 21st century have been relatively reduced in the last 50 years. The flood and waterlogging disaster areas of single cropping rice are mainly located in Poyang Lake, the coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the area of Zhangjiajie in Enshi. The disasters generally show an increasing trend, especially from transplanting period to booting stage. The high risk area of single cropping rice flood hazard at transplanting-tillering stage is mainly located in Poyang Lake and Huangshan, Enshi, Huanggang, etc. The probability of flood risk in most areas of jointing and booting stage and heading and maturing stage is lower than 4%. The flood hazard risk index of single cropping rice at transplanting-tillering stage was generally high, which was above 0.6. From jointing stage to mature stage, the high value area of risk index was mainly located in the coastal area of Zhejiang Province, and the other areas were in low value area. The risk index was lower than 0.3. (3) in the last 50 years, the number of summer maize waterlogging disaster decreased with the increase of disaster grade. The waterlogging areas are mainly located along the Yangtze River, along the Huaihe River and the coastal areas. With the increase of summer maize growth process, the disaster prone areas generally move northward with the rain belt. The occurrence of waterlogging and waterlogging in summer maize from seedling stage to heading stage showed an increasing trend on the whole, while the trend of decrease was the main trend in the period of heading and maturing. The spatial distribution of waterlogging risk probability of summer maize in the same growing period was basically the same, and with the increase of disaster grade, the high risk probability region gradually decreased. With the increase of growth process, the high value region of waterlogging hazard risk index gradually moved from southwest to northeast.
【学位授予单位】：中国气象科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：S511.41;S513;S422

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