1961～2011年长江中下游地区一季稻洪涝灾害时空变化及风险评估

发布时间：2018-09-19 10:19

【摘要】：为探究长江中下游地区一季稻洪涝灾害的变化规律和风险分布,利用该地区1961~2011年气象观测资料和1980~2011年一季稻发育期资料、面积产量数据,以累积湿润指数为基础构建灾害辨识指标,分析了一季稻洪涝灾害的时空变化。综合考虑致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性和承灾体暴露性建立风险评估模型,完成了风险度区划。结果表明:1近51年长江中下游一季稻洪涝灾害年际变化显著,除重度洪涝外均呈增加态势;大部分地区灾害发生频次为30~90次,高发区在湘鄂交界西部地区。2一季稻洪涝灾害发生概率高值区在长江沿岸地区和浙江东南沿海地区,达30%以上;灾损率为3.2%~5.2%,大致呈阶梯分布,从东到西逐渐减小;大部分地区种植比率低于10%,江苏省的种植比率明显高于其他省;风险度分布大致以长江为轴,由长江沿岸向外逐渐递减,最高值出现在湖南石门,达0.24。
[Abstract]:In order to study the variation rule and risk distribution of rice flood disaster in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the meteorological observation data from 1961 to 2011 and the data of rice development period from 1980 to 2011 were used to study the area yield data. Based on the cumulative wetting index, the temporal and spatial variation of the flood disaster in one season rice was analyzed. The risk assessment model was established considering the hazard risk factors, the vulnerability of disaster environment and the exposure of disaster bearing bodies, and the risk degree zoning was completed. The results show that in the past 51 years, the interannual variation of rice flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is significant, except for severe flooding, the frequency of disasters in most areas is 30 or 90. In the area of high incidence, the probability of occurrence of rice flood in the area of high incidence in the western part of the border of Hunan and Hubei is more than 30% along the Yangtze River coast and in the southeast coastal area of Zhejiang, and the disaster loss rate is 3.22% and 5.2%, which is approximately a ladder distribution, and decreases gradually from east to west. The planting ratio in most areas is lower than 10, and the planting rate in Jiangsu Province is obviously higher than that in other provinces, and the risk distribution is approximately on the Yangtze River axis, gradually decreasing from the Yangtze River coast to the outside, and the highest value appears in Shimen, Hunan Province, reaching 0.24.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学应用气象学院;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预警预报与评估协同创新中心;
【基金】：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506018)资助
【分类号】：S511;S422

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