工厂化集中育秧模式下荆州市双季早稻低温冷害风险分析

发布时间：2018-10-05 08:54

【摘要】：利用荆州市6个国家气象站1981-2014年早稻生育期和日平均气温观测资料,统计传统露地育秧(TS)情况下早稻的生育期和积温,设定比传统方式提前10d播种于温室集中育秧(CS-10)和提前20d播种于温室集中育秧(CS-20)两种育秧模式,推算出相应的生育期,利用日平均气温观测资料和weibull分布模型,统计分析当地采用这两种育秧模式时早稻关键生育期冷积温(指早稻某生育期内冷害临界温度指标与日平均气温差值的累积值)变化及概率密度分布,比较分析3种育秧模式下早稻遭遇低温冷害的风险。结果表明,相较于TS模式,提前10d集中育秧时,移栽-分蘖始期、幼穗分化始期、抽穗开花始期、灌浆结实始期和收获始期分别提前14d、10d、8d、11d和7d;提前20d集中育秧时,各生育期则分别提前24d、15d、11d、17d、10d。其中,轻度冷害发生概率在发育前期(移栽-分蘖期、幼穗分化期)逐渐下降,发育后期(抽穗开花期、灌浆结实期)逐渐增加,而中度以上冷害的发生概率在发育前期增幅较大,其中提前10d集中育秧时,移栽-分蘖期和孕穗分化期的冷害概率分别为14.7%、49.7%;提前20d集中育秧时,冷害概率分别可达57.1%、71.7%,是传统育秧模式的数倍。因此,为降低冷害风险、保障早稻稳产,荆州市早稻集中育秧模式的适宜播种期应不早于3月25日,即比传统育秧模式提前7d左右。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of early rice growth period and daily mean temperature observed from 1981 to 2014 at 6 national meteorological stations in Jingzhou City, the growth period and accumulated temperature of early rice under the condition of traditional open field seedling raising with (TS) were analyzed. Two models of planting seedling in greenhouse (CS-10) and CS-20 (CS-20) were established 10 days earlier than the traditional method, and the corresponding growth periods were calculated. The daily mean temperature observation data and the weibull distribution model were used. The variation and probability density distribution of cold accumulated temperature (the cumulative value between the critical temperature index of chilling injury and the daily average temperature difference between the critical temperature index and the daily average temperature) in key growing period of early rice were analyzed statistically. The risk of low temperature chilling injury of early rice under three seedling raising models was compared and analyzed. The results showed that, compared with the TS model, the transplanting and tillering, panicle differentiation, heading and flowering, grain filling and harvest were 14 days, 10 days, 8 days, 11 days and 7 days earlier, respectively, and 20 days earlier, respectively, when the seedlings were raised 10 days earlier, 10 days earlier, the first stage of transplanting and tiller, the early stage of young panicle differentiation, the beginning of heading and flowering, the beginning of grain filling and the beginning of harvest, respectively. The growth period was 24 days, 15 days, 11 days, 17 days and 10 days. Among them, the probability of mild chilling injury decreased gradually in early developmental stage (transplanting-tillering stage, young panicle differentiation stage), and increased gradually in late developmental stage (heading and flowering stage, grain filling stage). However, the probability of chilling injury increased greatly in the early stage of development, and the chilling injury probability of transplanting-tillering stage and booting differentiation stage was 14.79.7when the seedling was raised centrally 10 days earlier, and when the seedling was raised centrally 20 days earlier, the probability of chilling injury was 14.79.7in the transplanting to tillering stage and the booting differentiation stage, respectively. The probability of chilling injury was 57.1% and 71.7% respectively, which was several times higher than that of the traditional seedling raising model. Therefore, in order to reduce the risk of chilling injury and ensure the stable yield of early rice, the suitable sowing date of early rice intensive raising model in Jingzhou should not be earlier than March 25, that is, 7 days earlier than the traditional seedling raising model.
【作者单位】：荆州农业气象试验站;荆州市气象局;湿地生态与农业利用教育部工程研究中心;
【基金】：荆州市气象局科技发展基金项目(JZ201603) 国家重点研发计划重点专项(2016YFD0300907-05) 国家“973”计划项1目(2010CB951302;2012CB417106)
【分类号】：S511.31;S426

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