中国农业生产水环境承载力分析

发布时间：2018-10-09 08:36

【摘要】：[目的]通过测算农业生产水环境承载力来评价我国农业生产污染状况,并据此对我国农业生产力布局提出建议。[方法]利用中国2006、2014年七大农区24省份统计数据,采用过剩氮和水盈余方法测算农业生产水环境承载力及其污染风险。[结果]目前我国水资源总量能够承载农业生产总量,但其环境警报值不断向污染威胁临界值逼近,并且存在显著的区域差异;东北平原、长江流域和华南绝大部分地区的农业生产在环境承载力范围内;汾渭平原和河套灌区的农业生产对环境存在略微的污染风险;甘肃新疆和黄淮海平原的农业生产严重超出环境承载力,污染风险最为严重。[结论]可适当增加东北平原、长江流域和华南绝大部分地区的农业生产规模;加强汾渭平原和河套灌区的污染物质消减措施;强制实行甘肃新疆和黄淮海平原的生产总量控制与污染消减措施。同时,还可以从节水技术、减排技术、作物耕作制度、农牧循环体系及政策法规等方面入手,全面提高农业生产水环境承载力。
[Abstract]:[objective] to evaluate the pollution situation of agricultural production in China by measuring the carrying capacity of water environment in agricultural production, and to put forward some suggestions on the distribution of agricultural productivity in China. [methods] based on the statistical data of 24 provinces in seven agricultural regions in China in 2006 and 2014, the water environmental carrying capacity of agricultural production and its pollution risk were calculated by the methods of excess nitrogen and water surplus. [results] at present, the total amount of water resources in China can carry the total amount of agricultural production, but its environmental warning value is approaching to the critical value of pollution threat constantly, and there are significant regional differences. The agricultural production in the Yangtze River Basin and most parts of South China is within the range of environmental carrying capacity, and the agricultural production in Fen-Wei Plain and Hetao Irrigation District has a slight risk of pollution to the environment. The agricultural production in Xinjiang and Huang-Huai Hai Plain of Gansu Province exceeds the environmental carrying capacity seriously, and the pollution risk is the most serious. [conclusion] the scale of agricultural production in Northeast Plain, Yangtze River Basin and most parts of South China can be increased appropriately, and the measures of pollution abatement in Fen-Wei Plain and Hetao Irrigation area should be strengthened. To enforce total production control and pollution abatement measures in Xinjiang and Huanghuai Hai Plain, Gansu Province. At the same time, the water environment carrying capacity of agricultural production can be improved from the aspects of water-saving technology, emission reduction technology, crop farming system, agricultural and animal husbandry circulation system, policies and regulations, etc.
【作者单位】：江苏省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“环境目标约束下农户技术选择:个体行为与制度安排”(71273147) 中国博士后科学基金项目“环境承载力、农业结构调整与化肥减量研究”(2015M581756)
【分类号】：X52;X71

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