东北春玉米积温模型的改进与比较

发布时间：2018-11-09 15:44

【摘要】：积温是农业气象科研和业务工作中最常使用的指标之一,但由于受其他环境条件的影响,农作物生育期间的积温在年际间和地区间均表现出不稳定性。因此,如何对已有积温模型进行修正,使农作物生育期间积温计算值趋于稳定并反映实际情况,对农业生产和气象服务均有重要意义。该文以东北春玉米四单19为例,应用沈国权提出的非线性积温模型(简称NLM)进行拟合,分析了参数选择对积温稳定性的影响,提出使用平均温度的二次函数对线性积温模型(简称LM)进行修正(修正后模型称TRM)并进行效果分析,与NLM进行比较。结果表明:NLM拟合时参数P越小,模拟有效积温越稳定;NLM积温在年际间、地区间均存在差异,造成积温不稳定的主要因子是温度强度,与其他因子相关性较差;有效积温与生育期平均温度呈二次曲线关系,对LM的温度二次方修正结果与NLM结果比较发现,二次方修正方法具有可行性。
[Abstract]:Accumulated temperature is one of the most frequently used indexes in agrometeorological research and operation. However, due to the influence of other environmental conditions, the accumulated temperature during the growing period of crops shows instability between years and regions. Therefore, how to modify the existing accumulated temperature model to make the calculated value of accumulated temperature in the growing period of crops tend to be stable and reflect the actual situation is of great significance to agricultural production and meteorological services. Taking Northeast Spring Maize Sedan 19 as an example, the nonlinear accumulated temperature model (NLM) proposed by Shen Guoquan was used to fit the model, and the influence of parameter selection on the stability of accumulated temperature was analyzed. In this paper, the quadratic function of mean temperature is used to modify the linear accumulated temperature model (LM) (modified model called TRM) and its effect is analyzed and compared with that of NLM. The results show that the smaller the parameter P in NLM fitting, the more stable the simulated effective accumulated temperature is, and the difference of NLM accumulated temperature between years and regions, the main factor causing the instability of accumulated temperature is the temperature intensity, and the correlation with other factors is poor. The relationship between the effective accumulated temperature and the average temperature of growth period is conic. Comparing the results of quadratic correction of temperature of LM with that of NLM, it is found that the method of quadratic correction is feasible.
【作者单位】：中国气象科学研究院;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(31571559)
【分类号】：S161.2;S513

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