气候变化对河南省大豆产量的影响分析

发布时间：2018-11-28 20:15

【摘要】：利用河南省林州和泛区1993—2013年以及正阳1993—2008年大豆生育期观测资料和同期气象观测资料,通过数理统计、回归分析、线性倾向估计和积分回归等方法,分析河南省气候变化与大豆产量之间的关系,以期为当地合理利用气候资源、保障大豆安全生产等方面提供科学依据和参考。结果表明,在气候变化背景下,河南省大豆实际产量整体上呈增加态势;大豆趋势产量除泛区近似直线增长外,其他地区都有先减少后增加的趋势;大豆气象产量总体上呈减少趋势。降水量对河南北部、中部地区大豆的气象产量影响较显著;降水量增加对北部地区大豆产量有利。日照时数对大豆产量的影响较小,仅中部地区有一定的影响。平均气温对大豆产量的影响不明显;气温升高对南部和中部地区的大豆产量有利,对北部地区不利;积温增加对大豆实际产量的增加作用较为明显,但对中部地区的气象产量有一定减少作用。大豆气象产量对降水量、平均气温单位变化的敏感性相对较大。
[Abstract]:Based on the observed data of soybean growth period from 1993 to 2013 and Zhengyang from 1993 to 2008 in Linzhou and pan-region of Henan Province, and meteorological observation data of the same period, the methods of mathematical statistics, regression analysis, linear tendency estimation and integral regression were used. The relationship between climate change and soybean yield in Henan Province was analyzed in order to provide scientific basis and reference for the rational utilization of climate resources and the safety of soybean production. The results showed that, under the background of climate change, the actual soybean yield in Henan Province showed an increasing trend as a whole, and the soybean yield increased first and then increased in other regions except for the near linear increase in the pan-region. The meteorological yield of soybean showed a decreasing trend on the whole. The precipitation has a significant effect on the meteorological yield of soybean in the northern and central regions of Henan Province, and the increase of precipitation is beneficial to the soybean yield in the northern part of Henan Province. The effect of sunshine time on soybean yield was small, only in the central region. The effect of average temperature on soybean yield was not obvious, and the increase of temperature was beneficial to soybean yield in the south and central region, but unfavorable to the northern region. The increase of accumulated temperature has obvious effect on the actual soybean yield, but it can reduce the meteorological yield in the middle area. The relative sensitivity of soybean meteorological yield to precipitation and average temperature unit change is relatively large.
【作者单位】：中国气象局.河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室;河南省新乡市气象局;
【基金】：中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室基金(编号:AMF201311)
【分类号】：S162.54;S565.1

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