麻城龟峰山古杜鹃花期滚动预报方法探讨
发布时间：2018-11-29 11:43
【摘要】：利用麻城龟峰山杜鹃花海3个不同海拔高度和临近区域自动站连续2年观测的气温和物候资料,结合前期物候资料,统计不同高度、不同时段和不同要素的气象条件,结果表明:杜鹃花开放的临界温度为日平均气温稳定通过10℃,达到盛花期物候标准的积温指标为:1月1日起至盛花期前一日≥0℃活动积温大于等于730℃;3月1日起至盛花期前一日≥10℃活动积温大于等于450℃,对两项积温按不同高度、不同时间段进行垂直递减率计算并作相关分析,两因子与花期的线性相关显著。以两项积温作预报因子,建立从3月底到4月底,每隔5天一次的不同时段共7个花期预报方程。利用积温指标结合预报方程,可对杜鹃花期进行滚动预报和精细化预报,预报效果与实况基本吻合,误差较小。
[Abstract]:Based on the temperature and phenological data of three azaleas sea at different altitudes and adjacent areas observed for two consecutive years, combined with the previous phenological data, the meteorological conditions of different heights, different periods and different elements were calculated. The results showed that the critical temperature of azaleas blooming was that the daily average temperature passed through 10 鈩，
本文编号：2364903
[Abstract]:Based on the temperature and phenological data of three azaleas sea at different altitudes and adjacent areas observed for two consecutive years, combined with the previous phenological data, the meteorological conditions of different heights, different periods and different elements were calculated. The results showed that the critical temperature of azaleas blooming was that the daily average temperature passed through 10 鈩，
本文编号：2364903
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