极端气候变化及其对水稻气候产量影响的实证分析——以湖北省为例

发布时间：2018-12-14 10:43

【摘要】：为考察湖北极端天气事件的时空变化,采用1980—2014年逐日气候数据,并利用实证分析法研究了极端气候对水稻气候产量的影响。研究表明:1)湖北极端降水量和降水天数均呈下降趋势,极端降水事件由东向西、由南向北递减。2)极端高温呈上升趋势,表现为极端高温天数和强度增加。鄂北、鄂西易发生极端高温事件。3)极端气候类因素对水稻气候产量具有负向影响,其中,最低气温的极小值每增加1%将会使水稻的气候产量降低0.197%。白天极端高温天数对水稻气候产量也具有抑制作用,其每增加1%将会使水稻气候产量降低0.046%。因此,应加强湖北省极端天气事件易发区在水稻生长期内的气候监测和防范。
[Abstract]:In order to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of extreme weather events in Hubei Province, daily climatic data from 1980 to 2014 were used to study the effect of extreme weather on rice climatic yield by using empirical analysis. The results show that: 1) the extreme precipitation and the days of precipitation in Hubei show a downward trend, and the extreme precipitation events decrease from east to west and from south to north. 2) the extreme high temperature shows an upward trend, which shows that the days and intensity of extreme high temperature increase. Extreme climatic factors have a negative effect on the climatic yield of rice, in which the minimum value of minimum temperature increases by 1% will reduce the climatic yield of rice 0.197. The days of extreme high temperature during the day also inhibited the climatic yield of rice, and each increase of 1% could reduce the climatic yield of rice by 0.046%. Therefore, we should strengthen the climatic monitoring and prevention of extreme weather events in the rice growing period in Hubei Province.
【作者单位】：华中农业大学经济管理学院;湖北农村发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(NSFC-CGIAR,71461010701);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71273103) “万人计划”青年拔尖人才支持计划华中农业大学自主科技创新基金(2012YQ003) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助(2662015PY093)
【分类号】：S42;S511

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