哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平预测及障碍因子诊断

发布时间：2018-12-25 21:03

【摘要】：【目的】如何高效利用土地资源、提高耕地集约度是当前科学研究的主要问题,但如何科学预测耕地集约度则一直是研究难点。【方法】基于哈尔滨市耕地集约利用现状,运用熵权、变异系数组合赋权法、BP神经网络、障碍因子诊断法等揭示哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平发展趋势及耕地集约利用影响因素,为耕地集约利用发展方向及提高耕地集约利用度提供理论依据。【结果】结果表明:(1)1985~2014年哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平平均值为0.346 2,处于相对集约状态;2015~2024年哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平呈稳定上升态势,耕地集约利用度均值为0.475,处于高度集约状态;1985~2024年耕地集约利用水平以相对平稳态势发展,且并未出现较大波动,40年间哈尔滨市耕地集约利用平均值达0.409 6,处于较集约状态。(2)从准则层指标障碍度来看,耕地产出效率和投入强度对耕地集约利用水平的影响较大,并且呈现不断上升的趋势,耕地产出效率和投入强度年均增长速率为8.69%、7.82%,耕地利用程度和耕地利用可持续性年均下降速率为4.86%、5.73%,耕地集约利用水平的主要障碍因子是灌溉指数、单位耕地面积农业从业人员、农业产值比、单位播种面积粮食产量等。【结论】运用BP神经网络对哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平进行科学预测,用障碍因子诊断法诊断耕地集约利用障碍因子,能为研究哈尔滨市耕地集约利用发展趋势提供理论支撑。
[Abstract]:[objective] how to efficiently utilize land resources and improve cultivated land intensive degree is the main problem of current scientific research, but how to scientifically predict cultivated land intensive degree is always the research difficulty. [methods] based on the present situation of cultivated land intensive utilization in Harbin, Using entropy weight, coefficient of variation combined weighting method, BP neural network, obstacle factor diagnosis method to reveal the development trend of intensive use of cultivated land and the influencing factors of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin. The results show that: (1) the average level of cultivated land intensive utilization in Harbin from 1985 to 2014 is 0.346 2, which is in a relatively intensive state; From 2015 to 2024, the level of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin showed a steady rising trend, and the average value of intensive utilization of cultivated land was 0.475, which was in a highly intensive state. From 1985 to 2024, the level of intensive use of cultivated land developed relatively steadily, and there was no significant fluctuation. The average value of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin reached 0.409 6 during the 40 years, which was in a relatively intensive state. (2) judging from the index barrier degree of criterion level, the average value of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin was 0.409 in the past 40 years. The cultivated land output efficiency and input intensity have a great influence on the cultivated land intensive utilization level, and show a rising trend. The average annual growth rate of cultivated land output efficiency and input intensity is 8.69 and 7.82, and the average annual growth rate of cultivated land output efficiency and input intensity is 8.69 and 7.82, respectively. The average annual decreasing rate of cultivated land use degree and cultivated land use sustainability is 4.86% 5.73%. The main obstacle factors of cultivated land intensive utilization level are irrigation index, agricultural employees per unit area of cultivated land, and the ratio of agricultural output value. [conclusion] BP neural network is used to predict the level of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin, and the diagnostic method of obstacle factor is used to diagnose the obstacle factor of intensive utilization of cultivated land. It can provide theoretical support for studying the trend of intensive utilization of cultivated land in Harbin.
【作者单位】：东北农业大学资源与环境学院;东北大学土地管理研究所;
【基金】：黑龙江省国土资源科研项目“黑龙江省两大平原现代农业综合配套改革试验区土地管理制度创新研究”(黑国土科研01411)
【分类号】：F323.211

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