锡林郭勒盟草原干旱灾害风险综合分析

发布时间：2019-01-09 13:49

【摘要】：草原生态系统是我国面积最大的陆地生态系统,具有不可替代的生态功能,是保护生态环境的天然屏障。干旱灾害在我国具有频率高、范围涉及广、损失严重的特点,其对草原牧区畜牧业生产影响尤为严重。特别是近几年,由于全球变暖态势日益严峻,导致像特大干旱这样的极端天气气候事件明显增加,从而严重制约和影响牧区社会经济的正常发展和牧民的正常生活。因此,进行干旱灾害的风险分析,利于各级行政主管部门及生产部门掌握相关干旱信息,以便制定有效的防灾治灾措施,对减少干旱灾害损失和提高当地社会效益、经济效益具有十分深远的意义。干旱灾害是内蒙古自治区最主要的自然灾害,锡林郭勒盟是内蒙古自治区干旱灾害多发的地区,也是我国重要的畜牧业生产基地。因此本文以锡林郭勒盟地区为研究区域,根据自然灾害风险评价理论和干旱灾害风险的形成原理,从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性及防灾减灾能力4个因子出发,选取了12项指标。运用自然地理学、灾害科学、气象及气候学等多学科的理论和方法,结合自然灾害指数法、加权综合评价法、层次分析法建立该区干旱灾害风险评价模型。运用BP人工神经网络对模型进行验证,在GIS技术的支持下,生成锡林郭勒盟干旱灾害风险图谱,并对该地区干旱灾害风险进行分析。结果显示:锡林郭勒盟草原干旱灾害风险危险性指数总体上是由西北向东南递减,危险性风险呈减少趋势。脆弱性指数整体上呈由北向南递减的趋势,脆弱性风险也减小。暴露性指数空间分布则呈现由东向西指数递减的趋势,暴露性风险减小。防灾减灾能力在研究区内各旗县存在明显的差异性,大致在全盟呈现由四周向中间递减,有由北向南递增的趋势。锡林郭勒盟干旱灾害综合风险分区中,东乌珠穆沁旗、阿巴嘎旗是极高风险区,苏尼特左旗、苏尼特右旗、西乌珠穆沁旗是高风险区,锡林浩特市、太仆寺旗是中风险区,正镶白旗和正蓝旗则是低风险区,二连浩特市和多伦县是极低风险区。从空间上来看,草原干旱灾害风险呈从北向南,由东向西递减的趋势。根据BP网络模型预测结果绘制锡林郭勒盟各县旗市草原干旱灾害风险指数年变化曲线,这与利用层次分析方法得到的锡林郭勒盟多年草原干旱灾害风险评价结果基本吻合,从而验证锡林郭勒盟旱灾模型建立合理,得到的结论与现实较符合。
[Abstract]:Grassland ecosystem is the largest terrestrial ecosystem in China with irreplaceable ecological function and a natural barrier to protect ecological environment. Drought disaster has the characteristics of high frequency, wide range and serious loss in China, which has a serious impact on animal husbandry production in grassland and pastoral areas. Especially in recent years, due to the increasingly severe global warming situation, the extreme weather and climate events such as extreme drought have increased obviously, thus seriously restricting and affecting the normal development of social economy and the normal life of herdsmen in pastoral areas. Therefore, the risk analysis of drought disasters is beneficial to the administrative departments and production departments at all levels in mastering relevant drought information in order to formulate effective disaster prevention and control measures to reduce the losses of drought disasters and increase local social benefits. Economic benefit has very far-reaching significance. Drought disaster is the most important natural disaster in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, and Xilingol League is the region prone to drought disaster in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, and it is also an important animal husbandry production base in China. Therefore, this paper takes the Xilingol region as the research area, according to the theory of natural disaster risk assessment and the formation principle of drought disaster risk, from the hazard of disaster factors, Based on the four factors of exposure, vulnerability and ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, 12 indexes were selected. Based on the theories and methods of natural geography, disaster science, meteorology and climatology, combined with natural disaster index method, weighted comprehensive evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the risk assessment model of drought disaster in this area is established. The BP artificial neural network is used to verify the model. With the support of GIS technology, the drought hazard risk map of Xilinguole League is generated, and the drought disaster risk in this area is analyzed. The results showed that the risk index of drought disaster decreased from northwest to southeast, and the risk decreased. The vulnerability index decreases from north to south, and the vulnerability risk decreases. The spatial distribution of exposure index decreased from east to west, and the exposure risk decreased. The ability of disaster prevention and mitigation is obviously different in each flag county in the study area, and it tends to decrease from four sides to the middle and increase gradually from north to south in the whole league. In the comprehensive risk zones of drought disasters in the Xilingol League, East Wuzhimuqin Banner, Abaga Banner is an extremely high risk area, Sunita left Banner, Sunita right Banner, West Uzhoumuqin Banner is a high risk area, Xilinhaote City, Taibusi Banner is a medium risk area, Zhengxian White Banner and Zhenglan Banner are low risk areas, Erlianhaote City and Duolun County are very low risk areas. From the spatial point of view, the risk of grassland drought disaster decreases from north to south, from east to west. According to the forecast result of BP network model, the annual variation curve of drought disaster risk index of grassland in every county and city of Xilin Guolle League is drawn, which is basically consistent with the result of assessment of drought disaster risk of grassland in Xilinguole League for many years, which is obtained by using AHP method. It is proved that the drought model of Xilingol League is reasonable, and the conclusion is in accordance with the reality.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：S812.1

【参考文献】