1976-2015年中国主要农业气象灾害的变化特征

发布时间：2019-05-14 04:18

【摘要】：根据1976-2015年受灾、成灾和绝收面积等统计数据,计算中国主要农业气象灾害包括洪涝、干旱、风雹和低温灾害的受灾率、成灾率、绝收率和损失率,并对其变化趋势、灾害损失和灾害等级的变化特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)总体上,1976-2015年中国主要农业气象灾害的受灾率呈显著减小的趋势,而成灾率和绝收率变化趋势则不显著。干旱与农业气象灾害总体变化趋势相一致;洪涝受灾率、成灾率和绝收率存在阶段性的变化特征,1986-2005年各项均值最大;风雹灾害下降趋势显著,受灾率、成灾率均显著减小;而低温灾害各项指标的年代均值逐渐增加。(2)研究期内四大灾害总体损失率的上下限呈先增加后减小的趋势,平均灾害损失率为7.1%~15.7%。洪涝和干旱灾害损失率的上下限变化趋势与农业气象灾害总体一致,其平均损失率分别为2.0%~4.2%、3.8%~8.6%;而风雹灾害损失率的上下限呈减小的趋势,平均损失率为0.8%~1.7%;低温灾害损失率的上下限呈增加趋势,平均损失率为0.5%~1.1%。(3)研究期间洪涝重灾发生次数最多,为突发性灾害;干旱、风雹中灾和重灾发生次数之和最多,为常态性灾害。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical data of disaster, disaster and harvest area from 1976 to 2015, the disaster rate, extinction rate and loss rate of the main agrometeorological disasters in China, including flood, drought, hail and low temperature disasters, are calculated, and their changing trends are also calculated. The change characteristics of disaster loss and disaster grade are analyzed. The results show that: (1) on the whole, the disaster rate of major agrometeorological disasters in China decreased significantly from 1976 to 2015, but the change trend of disaster rate and extinction rate was not significant. The overall change trend of drought and agrometeorological disasters is consistent, and the flood disaster rate, disaster occurrence rate and extinction rate have the characteristics of stage change, and the average values of floods and waterlogging disasters are the largest from 1986 to 2005. The decreasing trend of hail disaster is significant, and the disaster rate and disaster rate are significantly reduced. However, the chronological mean of each index of low temperature disaster increased gradually. (2) during the study period, the upper and lower limits of the total loss rate of the four major disasters increased at first and then decreased, and the average disaster loss rate was 7.1% 鈮，

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