电动汽车项目发展管理及预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 02:04

本文关键词：电动汽车项目发展管理及预测研究　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前,随着我国人均富裕程度的增加,机动车使用逐渐增多,机动车尾气排放已成为影响城市大气质量最主要的污染源之一,严重制约城市的可持续发展。因此,机动车进行节能减排的一个途径是将利用化石能源的机动车转变为电动汽车。电动汽车的发展可预见性的是未来汽车工业的一个主要方向。电动汽车已经成为当前汽车产业发展的一个主流方向,以美国为代表的发达国家已经为电动汽车进行了配套体制和政策的建设,目前已经达到了初期的发展阶段。我国在国民经济及社会发展“十三五”规划纲要中,也已经指明电动汽车是我国未来汽车工业发展转型的一个主要方向。电动汽车在我国可以说是一个较新的产业,虽然目前各级政府,尤其是像北京、上海这些特大城市都进行鼓励电动汽车的配套政策和设施建设,并且给予电动汽车购买较多的补贴,提出了相应的“十三五”电动汽车发展目标,但是电动汽车仍然面临着技术投入和产业创新发展的巨大挑战。电动汽车的发展需要利用相应的系统性的管理思维对其进行规划,如何形成电动汽车的整个产业的政策扶持和管理体系,推动电动汽车的推广,使得电动汽车良好健康的可持续发展,其研究是非常有必要的,是一个非常重要的研究课题。因此,本文以电动汽车为研究对象,从项目管理的角度,将电动汽车看成是一个项目,对电动汽车项目发展管理及发展的相关问题进行了研究,论文主要的研究内容和创新主要有以下几点：(1)分析了电动汽车项目的影响因素,利用统计分析方法对每个因素进行了统计分析,利用对应分析方法对电动汽车项目的驱动因素进行了识别,根据驱动因素对电动汽车项目的消费群体定位进行了研究。(2)构建了均值—条件风险价值(Mean-CVaR)投资比例分配优化模型,考虑了不确定条件下的电动汽车项目投资比例优化问题,利用Mean-CVaR模型计算出电动汽车项目四个环节的投资分配优化解。(3)构建了基于地理网格以及和声搜索优化算法的电动汽车充电站选址优化模型,首先利用地理网格算法对候选站址的覆盖范围以及辐射路径进行了定量处理,然后利用和声搜索优化算法对充电站选址优化问题进行了求解,并通过实际算例,证实了算法的有效性。(4)提出了基于云模型和模糊三角层次分析法(FEAHP)及均方差法的主客观组合赋权的电动汽车项目后评价方法。依照项目后评价的要求,从实施过程评价、经济效益评价、项目影响评价、可持续发展评价四个方面构建了后评价指标体系,通过综合集成赋权方法,结合模糊三角层次分析法(FEAHP)及均方差法的特点给出各个指标的权重,通过云模型对难以量化的指标进行量化,最终给出评价结果,并通过实例进行了验证,针对实证分析结果给出了相关建议。(5)构建了基于模拟退火算法优化的汽车保有量组合预测模型,通过组合预测模型可以得到精度更高的年度汽车保有量预测值,并在此基础上,构建了系统动力学仿真原理的电动汽车项目发展情景政策仿真模型,通过将汽车保有量作为仿真模型中的参数,以北京市电动汽车的发展为背景,对北京市小汽车配额指标、电动汽车项目投资以及政府价格补贴作用三个主要政策的实施进行了仿真对比模拟分析。针对仿真结果,给出了相关建议。
[Abstract]:At present, with the increase of China's per capita wealth, increasing use of motor vehicles, motor vehicle exhaust has become one of the main pollution sources of city air quality, seriously restricting the sustainable development of the city. Therefore, a way of energy saving and emission reduction is the vehicle by using the vehicle of fossil energy into the development of electric vehicles electric vehicles. Predictability is a main direction of the future of the auto industry. The electric car has become a mainstream direction of the current development of the automobile industry, the developed countries represented by the United States has been supporting the construction of system and policy for electric vehicles, has reached the stage of early development. In the development of our country "13th Five-Year" plan for national economy and society, has also pointed out the electric car is in China in the future transformation of the development of the automobile industry is one of the main direction of electric. The car can be said in China is a relatively new industry, although the government at all levels at present, especially like Beijing, Shanghai these mega city are supporting the construction of policies and facilities to encourage electric cars, electric cars and give more subsidies to buy electric cars, put forward the target corresponding "13th Five-Year", but the electric car still faces huge challenges of technology input and industry innovation and development. The development of electric vehicles need to plan for the use of the corresponding system of management thinking, how to form electric cars the whole industry policy support and management system, promote the popularization of electric vehicles, the electric car in good health and sustainable development, and its research is very necessary, is a very important research topic. Therefore, this paper uses electric vehicle as the research object, from the perspective of project management, the electric car will see As a project, problems related to the development of the management and development of electric vehicle project is studied, the main research contents and innovations are as follows: (1) analyzed the influencing factors of electric vehicle project, each of the factors were analyzed by statistical analysis method, using the corresponding analysis method of the driving factors the electric vehicle project were identified, according to the driving factors of electric vehicle project consumer group positioning is studied. (2) constructed the mean conditional value at risk (Mean-CVaR) optimization model of investment proportion, considering the uncertain conditions of investment proportion optimization of electric vehicle project, using Mean-CVaR model to calculate the optimal the solution of electric vehicle project investment allocation of four aspects. (3) constructed the station location optimization model of geographic grid and electric vehicle charging based on harmony search algorithm The first type, the use of geographic grid algorithm coverage of the candidate sites and radiation path for the quantitative data, and then use the harmony search optimization algorithm to the charging station location optimization problem is solved, and through practical examples, demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. (4) proposed a method of cloud model and triangular fuzzy hierarchy based on (FEAHP) evaluation method and mean variance method of subjective and objective combination weighting electric vehicle project. After the evaluation according to the project requirements, from the implementation process evaluation, economic evaluation, project evaluation, evaluation index system of sustainable development evaluation four aspects, through the integrated weight method, combined with fuzzy triangle the analytic hierarchy process (FEAHP) characteristics and the weight of each index is given the mean variance method, were quantified by the index of cloud model is difficult to quantify, finally gives the evaluation results, and through examples Verified, according to the empirical analysis results give relevant suggestions. (5) constructed by the simulated annealing algorithm carownership combination forecasting model based on the combination forecast can obtain a more accurate model of the annual car ownership forecast, and on this basis, the construction principle of the system dynamics simulation of electric vehicle project the development situation of policy simulation model, the car ownership as a parameter in the simulation model, with the development of electric vehicles in Beijing city as the background of Beijing city car quota, implementation of three main policy of electric vehicle project investment and government subsidies effect simulated simulation. According to the simulation results, given the relevant advice.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.471

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