基于GIS的皖南地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划

发布时间：2018-02-26 07:40

本文关键词： 暴雨洪涝风险区划广义极值分布函数 FloodArea模型皖南地区　出处：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：[目的]开展对不同重现期暴雨淹没深度模拟研究,分析皖南地区不同重现期下暴雨洪涝灾害淹没情况和不同承灾体的风险区划情况,为皖南地区防洪减灾工作提供科学依据。[方法]文章采用算术平均值方法计算面雨量及雨型分布,通过广义极值分布函数拟合,得到拟合参数和不同重现期下日致洪面雨量,利用FloodArea模型计算暴雨淹没深度图谱。即利用皖南地区1961~2014年降水数据,结合人口、GDP及土地利用类型研究分析皖南地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险和区划。[结果]皖南地区各子流域暴雨日分布特征及致洪面雨量有很大区别,牧龙河、黄湓河等流域致灾暴雨普遍偏强,漳河、青弋江等流域致灾暴雨普遍偏弱。暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划的一致性表现为各类承灾体风险等级均呈现10年一遇和20年一遇重现期较小,50年一遇重现期中等,100年一遇重现期较大的特点;区域性体现在对3种承灾体空间分布差异明显,其中人口分布集中,GDP分布相对分散,建筑用地情况和人口分布基本吻合,耕地面积比人口和GDP更广泛。[结论]皖南地区暴雨洪涝灾害不同承灾体的风险区划呈现一致性和区域性特征,暴雨洪涝灾害不同重现期与人口密集区、经济发达地区、建筑用地、耕地附近的暴雨洪涝灾害风险等级呈现一致性特征。
[Abstract]:[objective] to study the flood depth simulation of rainstorm in different recurrence periods, and to analyze the flood and flood disaster submergence and risk zoning of different disaster bearing bodies in southern Anhui Province. This paper provides a scientific basis for flood control and disaster reduction work in southern Anhui. [methods] the arithmetic average method is used to calculate the area rainfall and rain pattern distribution. By fitting the generalized extreme value distribution function, the fitting parameters and the daily flood surface rainfall under different recurrence periods are obtained. The FloodArea model is used to calculate the depth map of rainstorm submergence, that is, the precipitation data from 1961 to 2014 in southern Anhui Province are used. Based on the study of population GDP and land use types, the risk and regionalization of rainstorm and flood disaster in southern Anhui are analyzed. [results] the daily distribution characteristics of rainstorm and flood area rainfall in various subbasins of southern Anhui are very different. The flood and torrential rain caused by the Huanggong River and other watersheds is generally on the strong side, and the Zhang River, The consistency of the risk regionalization of rainstorm flood and waterlogging disaster shows that the risk levels of all kinds of disaster bearing bodies show a smaller recurrence period of 10 years and 20 years, a recurrence period of 50 years and 100 years. The characteristics of large recurrence period; The regional distribution of the three kinds of disaster-bearing bodies is obviously different, in which the distribution of population is concentrated and the distribution of GDP is relatively dispersed, and the situation of building land is basically consistent with the distribution of population. The area of cultivated land is more extensive than that of population and GDP. [conclusion] the risk regionalization of different types of torrential rain and waterlogging disaster in southern Anhui shows consistency and regional characteristics. The risk of rainstorm and flood near the cultivated land is consistent.
【作者单位】：南京大学大气科学学院;铜陵市气象局;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41571494) 铜陵市公共气象服务平台研发(AHXJ201507)
【分类号】：P208;P426.616

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