随机型复合标底条件下中标概率最大的投标报价研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 11:50

本文关键词：随机型复合标底条件下中标概率最大的投标报价研究　出处：《天津理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：投标报价是施工企业的“一次经营”，中标与否决定着企业的生存与发展。随机型复合标底评标办法作为综合评估法的一种评标形式，因其标底的影响因素具备较大的随机性，故在建筑工程招投标中被广泛应用。与此同时，也为施工企业的投标报价提出了新的挑战。一个谋求长远发展的企业需要按照招投标制度的发展规范自身的行为与细节。因此，施工企业亟需建立随机型复合标底条件下的投标报价决策制度，运用数字化、网络化技术及先进的科学管理理论，争取最大的中标概率，成功实现企业一次经营。基于上述问题，本论文进行以下方面的研究：研究一，随机型复合标底条件下中标概率最大的投标报价模型。本论文通过对随机型复合标底评标办法的分析，得出投标人中标概率最大时的报价就是在小于复合标底的条件下最接近复合标底的报价。因此，根据扣分最小原则，得出了随机型复合标底条件下中标概率最大的投标报价模型。通过对模型中的影响因素进行分析，解构出论文研究的关键问题——业主标底权重及下浮率预测、投标竞争对手平均报价预测。研究二，，业主标底权重及下浮率的预测。通过文献分析，选定蒙特卡罗模拟作为研究工具，构建了基于蒙特卡罗模拟的业主标底权重及下浮率预测模型。首先，通过对关于业主标底权重及下浮率的历史数据分析，绘制业主标底权重及下浮率的直方图，判断其取值服从正态分布；其次，通过t分布估计误差的公式，确定模拟次数N；再次，运用Matlab计算机软件编程，模拟N次业主标底权重及下浮率的取值，并输出其概率分布图；最后，通过概率分布图，确定出业主标底权重及下浮率的最可能取值区间。研究三，投标竞争对手的平均报价的预测。通过文献分析及招投标行为中的博弈特征，选定博弈论作为研究工具，构建了基于博弈论的投标竞争对手平均报价的预测模型。首先，设定博弈参数——局中人、投标策略及支付函数，建立其他投标竞争对手的期望效用函数；其次，运用概率论的相关知识对博弈模型进行求解分析，得出投标竞争对手的平均报价。研究四，投标报价的实证分析。运用论文研究成果——最优投标报价模型，对真实的投标报价案例进行模拟，验证论文研究成果的适用性。
[Abstract]:The bidding quotation is the " one run " of the construction enterprise , and it determines the existence and development of the enterprise . The random compound bottom evaluation method is used as an evaluation standard of the comprehensive evaluation method . Therefore , the bidding quotation of the construction enterprise is widely used . At the same time , the enterprise needs to establish the bidding quotation decision system under the condition of the bidding system . Therefore , the construction enterprise needs to establish the bidding quotation decision system under the condition of the bidding system . Based on the above - mentioned problems , the following aspects are studied in this paper : In this paper , the bidding quotation model with the largest probability of winning bid is studied under the condition of random compound bottom bidding . The bidding quotation model with the largest probability of winning the winning probability of the bidder is obtained through the analysis of the evaluation method of the stochastic composite bottom . Therefore , according to the minimum principle of the deduction , the paper obtains the bidding quotation model with the largest probability of winning the bid under the condition of less than the composite bottom . Based on the analysis of literature , Monte Carlo simulation is selected as the research tool to construct the model of owner ' s bottom weight and lower flotation rate based on Monte Carlo simulation . First , by analyzing historical data analysis about owner ' s bottom weight and float rate , it is determined that its value is subject to normal distribution ; secondly , using Matlab computer software to program , simulate the value of bottom weight and float rate of N times , and output its probability distribution diagram ; and finally , the most probable value range of owner ' s bottom weight and lower float rate is determined through probability distribution diagram . Based on the game theory , the game theory is selected as the research tool . The game theory is selected as the research tool , and the game theory - based forecasting model is constructed . First , the game parameter _ local person , the bidding strategy and the payment function are set up to establish the expected utility function of the opponent . Secondly , the game model is solved and analyzed by using the relevant knowledge of probability theory , and the average quotation of the opponent is obtained . The paper studies the empirical analysis of bidding quotation , and uses the paper ' s research results _ best bidding quotation model to simulate the real bidding quotation case to verify the applicability of the research results .

【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU723.2

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