基于循环经济的城市既有住宅更新改造环境绩效分析和潜力评价

发布时间：2018-01-19 01:31

本文关键词： 既有住宅循环经济预测分析环境效益改造潜力改造机制　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：针对目前我国城市既有住宅的“短命”和建筑业的高污染现象，以循环经济理论为切入点，系统分析了既有住宅更新改造与循环经济的关系，构建了城市住宅拆除量预测的神经网络Boosting集成模型，对住宅更新改造的环境参数和环境绩效进行了分析，并从所有者及使用者的态度、既有住宅的状况、环境性能和人文社会属性四个层面构建了既有住宅更新改造潜力评价指标体系和评价模型，提出了住宅更新改造的对策和建议。具体内容如下： 1.在对循环经济基本理论介绍的基础上，结合我国目前常见的既有住宅更新改造方式，指出循环经济是促进城市发展的关键，既有住宅更新改造是循环经济减量化原则和再利用原则的重要体现。 2.采用灰色关联度分析方法筛选出影响城市住宅拆除量的主要因素，然后采用神经网络Boosting集成模型对城市住宅拆除量进行预测分析。分析结果表明，住宅自身的建造质量并非影响我国住宅拆除量的主要因素，影响城市住宅拆除量的主要因素为经济利益的驱动和因农村人口迁入城市导致的对住宅需求量的增加。 3.以“隐含环境影响因子”概念为平台，构建了住宅隐含环境影响因子计算模型，并采用该方法对我国城市住宅更新改造的环境参数进行了计算分析。计算结果表明，对既有住宅进行更新改造，而不是简单拆除，在减少资源消耗和降低环境污染方面具有良好的环境生态效益，符合循环经济减量化和再利用的基本要求，并且环境效益随住宅更新改造时建筑实体保留率的增加而增长。 4.对既有住宅更新改造的直接效益、间接效益和可能的负效益进行了分析，并以环境参数为输入数据，计算了既有住宅更新改造的环境价值。计算结果表明，对既有住宅进行更新改造具有明显的环境价值，符合循环经济和环境可持续发展的要求。 5.从所有者及使用者的态度、既有住宅的状况、环境性能和人文社会属性四个层面，构建了系统化的既有住宅更新改造潜力评价体系，在指标权重的计算中综合分析了主客观权重确定方法的优缺点，，并根据该指标体系的特点，采用了改进的层次分析法确定了指标体系的权重，最后建立了评价模型，完善了该领域的标准化体系，为既有住宅更新改造的时机选择提供了依据。 6.由于住宅更新改造具有明显的环境和经济外部性，符合循环经济发展的基本原则和要求，以政府介入循环经济发展的理论基础—外部性理论为切入点，从政策支撑体系建设、法律支撑体系建设、经济市场支撑体系建设、观念意识转变和提升及专业人才培养五个方面提出了我国旧住宅更新改造的相关政策性建议。以上研究成果对于科学合理的判断既有住宅更新改造的潜力，制定相关旧住宅更新改造的政策，延长我国城市住宅的寿命，减少因拆、建过于频繁导致的环境污染具有一定的参考价值。
[Abstract]:In view of the "short life" of the existing housing and the high pollution of the construction industry in our country, the relationship between the renewal of the existing residence and the circular economy is systematically analyzed with the theory of circular economy as the breakthrough point. A neural network Boosting integrated model for predicting the demolition quantity of urban residential buildings is constructed. The environmental parameters and environmental performance of residential renewal and renovation are analyzed, and the attitudes of owners and users are analyzed. This paper constructs the evaluation index system and evaluation model of the existing housing renewal potential from four aspects: the condition of the existing residence, the environmental performance and the humanistic social attribute. The countermeasures and suggestions for the renewal and renovation of residential buildings are put forward. The specific contents are as follows: 1. On the basis of the introduction of the basic theory of circular economy, combined with the existing residential renewal and transformation mode, it is pointed out that circular economy is the key to promote the development of the city. The renewal and transformation of existing housing is an important embodiment of the principle of circular economy reduction and reuse. 2. The main factors influencing the demolition amount of urban residential buildings are screened by using the method of grey correlation degree analysis. Then the neural network Boosting integrated model is used to predict and analyze the demolition quantity of urban housing. The results show that the construction quality of the house itself is not the main factor affecting the demolition quantity of housing in China. The main factors affecting the demolition amount of urban housing are the driving force of economic benefits and the increasing demand for housing caused by the migration of rural population to the city. 3. Based on the concept of "implied environmental impact factor", the calculation model of residential implicit environmental impact factor is constructed. The method is used to calculate and analyze the environmental parameters of urban residential renewal and renovation in China. The results show that the existing residential buildings should be renovated rather than simply demolished. It has good environmental ecological benefits in reducing resource consumption and reducing environmental pollution, which meets the basic requirements of circular economy reduction and reuse. And the environmental benefit increases with the increase of building entity retention rate. 4. The direct benefit, indirect benefit and possible negative benefit are analyzed, and the environmental parameters are taken as input data. The environmental value of the renewal and renovation of the existing residence is calculated. The result shows that the renewal and renovation of the existing residence has obvious environmental value and meets the requirements of circular economy and environmental sustainable development. 5. From the attitude of owners and users, the status of existing housing, environmental performance and humanistic and social attributes, a systematic evaluation system of existing housing renewal potential is constructed. In the calculation of index weight, the advantages and disadvantages of the subjective and objective weight determination method are comprehensively analyzed, and according to the characteristics of the index system, the improved AHP method is used to determine the weight of the index system. Finally, the evaluation model is established, and the standardization system in this field is perfected, which provides the basis for the choice of the opportunity for the renewal and renovation of the existing housing. 6. Because of its obvious environmental and economic externalities, housing renovation meets the basic principles and requirements of the development of circular economy, and takes the theory of government intervention in the development of circular economy as the starting point. From the policy support system construction, the legal support system construction, the economic market support system construction. This paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions on the renewal and renovation of old houses in China from five aspects: the change and promotion of concept consciousness and the cultivation of professional talents. The above research results are scientific and reasonable to judge the potential of existing residential renewal and renovation, to formulate policies related to the renovation of old housing, to prolong the life of urban housing in China, and to reduce the demolition. The environmental pollution caused by building too often has certain reference value.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU241

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