基于改进无偏灰色模型的燃气供气量的预测

发布时间：2018-03-17 08:22

本文选题：城市安全　切入点：无偏灰色模型　出处：《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》2014年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为有效配置资源及保障城市安全,利用改进无偏灰色模型计算城市燃气供气量。建立无偏灰色预测模型,用3点平滑法及等维新息对数据序列进行处理,得到改进无偏灰色预测模型。根据城市供气量的统计数据,分别由无偏灰色预测模型及改进无偏灰色模型进行拟合预测,并将所得供气量与实际供气量进行比较。计算结果表明:无偏灰色模型所得预测曲线为单调递减函数,随着预测时间增加预测值和实际供气量偏差较大;改进无偏灰色模型能够改变无偏灰色模型的单调性,预测值和实际供气量比较接近,可用于中长期预测。无偏灰色模型和改进无偏灰色模型预测所得燃气供气量的相对误差均值分别为7.32%和5.76%。
[Abstract]:In order to effectively allocate resources and ensure city safety, the improved unbiased grey model is used to calculate urban gas supply. An unbiased grey prediction model is established, and the data sequence is processed by using 3-point smoothing method and equal-dimensional innovation. According to the statistical data of urban gas supply, the unbiased grey forecasting model and the improved unbiased grey model are used to fit and forecast, respectively. The calculated results show that the prediction curve obtained by the unbiased grey model is a monotone decreasing function, and the deviation between the predicted value and the actual gas supply is larger with the increase of prediction time. The improved unbiased grey model can change the monotonicity of the unbiased grey model, and the predicted value is close to the actual gas supply. Unbiased grey model and improved unbiased grey model can be used to predict gas supply. The mean relative error of gas supply is 7.32% and 5.76, respectively.
【作者单位】：清华大学工程物理系公共安全研究院;
【基金】：国家“十二五”科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK07B03)
【分类号】：TU996

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