长三角经济圈城市最优规模问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 06:50

本文选题：城市规模效益 + 首位度　；参考：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济全球化浪潮席卷而来,国内外经济社会大环境发生深刻变化,区域发展面临着全新的机遇与挑战。中国在全球化浪潮中积极寻求自身发展地位,规避劣势做大优势,国内区域经济得到翻天覆地的发展。长三角已成为国内城市分布密度最大、经济实力最强的城市连绵区,在国内具有举足轻重的经济地位,区域经济发展形成以上海为龙头、江浙地区等周边地区协同发展的格局。长三角城市群经济的快速发展,也相应的促进了区域人口城市化的快速发展。改革开放以来,长三角城市群进入人口城市化加速发展时期,于此同时城市社会、经济、产业得到快速发展。但过快的城市化进程造成了城市人口、工业和交通运输等过度集中,给长三角地区城市经济社会发展带来制约因素,如城镇居民就业及社会保障、城市基础设施滞后、城市环境恶化等问题,进而对城市的运行产生负面影响,我们把这些因城市人口和经济活动过度集中带来的城市问题称为“城市病”。由此引发学术界对长三角城市规模过大还是过小的问题的讨论,甚至延伸至对中国城市规模发展方向的再一次探讨。本文以长三角城市群30个城市为研究对象,在充分研究其他学者城市规模相关理论、最优城市规模文献与实证研究的基础上,采用首位度指数、灰色关联法、非线性回归、GM(1,1)预测模型等计量方法,分析了该区域城市人口规模分布现状及特征,并对其城市规模与城市效益关系进行计量研究。此外,文章还对未来各城市人口规模发展趋势进行预测,在此基础上提出了长三角地区人口城市化发展相关建议。这无论对长三角地区人口规模发展方向、政策制定,还是对全国城市化发展方针的制定,都具有一定的参考借鉴意义。文章的创新在于：(1)基于最优城市规模相关理论与实证研究,及统计数据的连续性和可获得性,文章选取以长三角城市群30个城市为研究对象,针对其城市规模问题进行了细致研究,探讨了其最优城市规模问题。而国内针对长三角的研究鲜有选取全部30个城市在内作为研究对象进行分析的。(2)改革开放以来,国内特别是长三角城市经济得到快速发展,创造了令人嘱目的可喜成绩。文章系统的探讨了长三角城市规模与效益的关系,并分析得出其最优城市规模,给未来该区域城市规模发展方向提供意见。(3)利用数据分析软件,通过多种计量方法探讨长三角最优城市规模问题。文章采用了首位度分析、因子分析、回归分析、灰色预测模型等多种计量方法,使其研究成果更加具有实际说服力。在主要内容安排上,文章共分为六章。第一章主要是研究背景、研究意义、研究内容、研究方法以及论文框架的阐述,归纳得出本文研究的意义及创新所在。第二章是对国内外相关理论及研究进展的梳理和分析。第三章对文章研究对象概况进行介绍,并归纳总结国内城市规模政策的发展历程,同时利用城市规模等级体系及首位度指数等计量指标对长三角城市规模分布的现在特点进行了研究探讨,得出当前长三角城市群城市规模发展趋势符合世界城市群发展规律。第四章通过因子分析及回归分析方法,重点分析长三角城市群不同规模城市的经济效益、社会效益和总效益情况,得出理论研究上长三角各城市的最优城市规模。第五章主要是通过灰色预测模型对各城市的城市规模进行预测。第六章是对前文的归纳总结,并对文章内容进行了进一步思考。
[Abstract]:With the tide of economic globalization, profound changes have taken place in the economic and social environment at home and abroad. Regional development is facing new opportunities and challenges. China is actively seeking its own development status in the wave of globalization, avoiding disadvantages and making big advantages, and the domestic regional economy has been overturned. The Yangtze River Delta has become a dense distribution of domestic cities. The urban continuous areas with the largest degree and the strongest economic strength have an important economic position in China. The development of regional economy has formed a pattern of coordinated development with Shanghai as the leading and the surrounding areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces.
The rapid development of the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta has also promoted the rapid development of the urbanization of the regional population. Since the reform and opening up, the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta has entered the period of accelerated development of the population urbanization. At the same time, the urban society, economy and industry have developed rapidly. But the rapid urbanization process has caused urban population, industry and transportation. The excessive concentration of transportation and so on has brought restrictions to the urban economic and social development of the Yangtze River Delta, such as the employment and social security of urban residents, the lagging of urban infrastructure and the deterioration of the urban environment, which have a negative impact on the operation of the city. We call these urban problems caused by the excessive concentration of urban population and economic activities as the urban problems. "Urban disease" has triggered a discussion on the large or too small size of the city in the Yangtze River Delta, and even further extends to the direction of the development of Chinese cities.
This paper takes 30 cities of urban agglomeration in Yangtze River Delta as the research object. On the basis of the study of other scholars' urban scale theory, the optimal city scale literature and the empirical study, this paper uses the first degree index, grey correlation method, nonlinear regression, GM (1,1) prediction model and so on to analyze the present situation of the population size distribution in this region and the present situation of the urban population distribution in this region. In addition, the article also predicts the development trend of the population size of the cities in the future, and on this basis puts forward some suggestions on the development of population urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta, which is the direction for the development of the population regulation in the Yangtze River Delta, the policy making, or the National City. The formulation of the policy of development has certain reference significance.
The innovation of the article lies in: (1) based on the theory and Empirical Study of the optimal city scale, and the continuity and availability of the statistical data, the article selects 30 cities in the Yangtze River Delta city group as the research object, and makes a detailed study of the urban scale of the Yangtze River Delta, and probes into the problem of its optimal city scale. The study rarely selects all 30 cities as the research object. (2) since the reform and opening up, the economy of the city in the Yangtze River Delta, especially the Yangtze River Delta, has developed rapidly and has created a desired result. The article systematically discusses the relationship between the size and benefit of the Yangtze River Delta and its optimal city scale and gives the future The direction of the scale development of regional cities provides advice. (3) using data analysis software to discuss the problem of the optimal city size in the Yangtze River Delta through a variety of measurement methods. The article adopts a number of measurement methods, such as first degree analysis, factor analysis, regression analysis, grey prediction model and so on, so that the research results are more practical and persuasive.
In the main content arrangement, the article is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is mainly the research background, research significance, research content, research methods and the framework of the paper, and concludes the significance and innovation of this paper. The second chapter is the combing and analysis of the related theories and research progress at home and abroad. The third chapter is the general survey of the article. The development course of urban scale policy in China is summarized and summarized. At the same time, the present characteristics of the urban scale distribution in the Yangtze River Delta are studied by using the urban scale system and the first index index, and the development trend of urban agglomeration in the city group of the Yangtze River Delta is in line with the law of the development of the world city group. Fourth Through the factor analysis and the regression analysis method, the chapter analyzes the economic benefit, the social benefit and the total benefit of the cities of different scale in the Yangtze River Delta, and obtains the optimal city size of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta. The fifth chapter is mainly to predict the urban scale of each city through the grey forecasting model. The sixth chapter is the former. The paper summarizes and summarizes the contents of the article.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU982.2

【参考文献】