基于变更预期的不平衡报价机会点识别研究

发布时间：2018-07-09 12:54

本文选题：变更 + 变更机会　；参考：《天津理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着建筑市场的蓬勃发展，承包人之间竞争日益激烈，经评审的最低投标价法评标使得承包人追求低价中标。大量的统计数据表明我国建筑施工企业的利润率低下，并一直没有得到解决。中标概率以及利润最大化是承包人追求的两大目标，然而中标概率最大则意味着盈利空间小，追求利润最大则中标概率相对较低，两者似乎不可调和。不平衡报价是承包人在已标价工程量清单基础上实现高价结算的主要手段之一，，如何利用不平衡报价来实现创收是承包人亟待解决的现实问题。建设项目的实践证明，变更是承包人实现合同外收入的重要影响因素之一，合理利用变更进行不平衡报价，可以为承包人创造额外利润。基于上述建设项目的实践问题以及学术界的报价策略研究，对变更类、不平衡报价类相关文献进行整理和分析发现：鲜有研究不平衡报价的实现路径。因此，借鉴风险管理理论思想构建不平衡报价分析框架—SEDA模型，将不平衡报价实现路径程序化、规范化，并致力于SEDA模型中变更机会点识别的研究。针对变更机会点识别的问题，在相关规范整理的基础上，运用文献分析法、问题树分析法以及多案例研究等方法，对不平衡报价变更机会点的识别进行全面、系统、深入地研究，主要研究内容如下：（1）在整理08清单计价规范对于工程价款调整规定以及分析变更类文献的基础上，通过文献分析法归纳总结出建设项目在招投标阶段可以事先预测的变更包括两大类：一是招标文件缺陷类变更；二是地质勘探资料描述与现场踏勘不符类变更。（2）针对招标文件缺陷类变更机会点的识别问题，运用问题树分析法，分析项目特征描述不符、工程量清单缺项引起实体项目和措施项目增加、工程量偏差的各种情形，并层层细化变更机会点，并设计相应的不平衡单价，实施不平衡报价策略。（3）地质勘探资料描述类变更机会点的识别关键在于寻找地质勘探资料描述与现场踏勘情况之间的差异。因此，基于地质条件的复杂性、隐蔽性以及不可完全预见性等特性构建“差异—机会点—变更情形”分析框架，运用多案例研究法对特殊性土、地质露头、地质构造、水文地质以及取土弃土场地条件等五类可能存在变更机会点的情形进行探索性研究，进而大大加强承包人对此类变更情形的可预见性、可利用性以及可实现性的控制水平。（4）案例验证。在第四章和第五章两大类变更机会点的识别过程中，分别结合建设项目实践案例，运用SEDA模型和“差异—机会点—变更情形”分析框架进行验证。通过上述研究，得到以下研究成果：不平衡报价实现路径—SEDA模型，招标文件缺陷类变更机会点、报价方案一览表；地质勘探资料描述类变更机会点识别工具“差异—机会点—变更情形”；地质勘探资料描述类变更机会点、报价方案一览表。研究成果具有较好的操作指南价值。
[Abstract]:With the flourishing development of the construction market, the competition among contractors is increasingly fierce. The evaluation of the lowest bid price evaluation makes the contractor pursue the bid at low price. A large number of statistical data show that the profit rate of the construction enterprises in China is low and has not been solved. The two main objectives of the Contractor's pursuit are the probability of winning the bid and the maximization of profit. However, the maximum probability of winning the bid mean that the profit space is small and the maximum profit is the lowest probability of winning the bid, which seems to be irreconcilable. The unbalanced quotation is one of the main means for the contractor to achieve high price settlement on the basis of the already marked price list. How to use the unbalanced quotation to achieve income generation is an urgent problem for the contractor to solve The practical problem. The practice of the construction project has proved that the change is one of the important factors that the contractor realizes the income outside the contract. The reasonable use of the change to carry out the unbalanced quotation can create extra profit for the contractor.
Based on the practical problems of the above construction projects and the study of the quotation strategy in the academic circle, the paper collated and analyzed the related literature of the change class and the unbalanced quotation class. There were few research ways to realize the unbalanced quotation. Therefore, using the theory of risk management to construct an unbalanced price analysis framework SEDA model, the unbalanced quotation is not balanced. The present path is programmed, standardized, and devoted to the research of change opportunity point identification in the SEDA model. In view of the problem of change opportunity point identification, on the basis of the relevant specification, the method of document analysis, problem tree analysis and multi case study are used to identify the opportunity point of the unbalanced price change. The main research contents are as follows:
(1) on the basis of sorting out the regulation of the 08 list price regulation on the adjustment of the engineering price and analyzing the documents of the change class, through the literature analysis, it concludes that the change of the construction project can be predicted in the bidding stage including two categories: one is the change of the defect class of the bidding documents, and the two is the description of the geological exploration data and the site exploration. Character change.
(2) in view of the identification problem of the opportunity point for the change of the defect class of the bidding documents, the problem tree analysis method is used to analyze the discrepancy of the feature description of the project, the items of the project and the measure items increase, the various situations of the deviation of the engineering quantity, the change of the opportunity point of the change, and the design of the corresponding unbalance price, the implementation of the unbalanced quotation policy. A little.
(3) the key to the identification of the opportunity points for the description of the geological exploration data is to find the difference between the geological exploration data description and the field survey. Therefore, based on the characteristics of the complexity, concealment and not completely foreseeable of geological conditions, the "difference opportunity point change case" analysis framework is constructed, and the multi case study method is used. Five kinds of possibility of change opportunity point, such as special soil, geological outcrop, geological structure, hydrogeology and ground condition, are studied, and the predictability, availability and the control level of the contractor to this kind of change are greatly strengthened.
(4) case verification. In the recognition process of the fourth and the fifth chapter of the two major change opportunity points, the SEDA model and the "difference opportunity point change case" analysis framework are used to verify the case with the construction project practice cases respectively.
Through the above research, we get the following research results: the path of unbalanced quotation realization - SEDA model, the opportunity point of the defect class change of the bidding documents, the list of quotation scheme, the "difference opportunity point - change case", the geological exploration data description tool, the opportunity point of the class change, the quotation scheme The research results have a good value of operation guide.
【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU723.2

【参考文献】