武汉城市开放空间时空演变与驱动因素分析研究

发布时间：2018-08-21 08:27

【摘要】：随着2011年中国城市化率突破50%，历史性的达到了51.3%，未来我国城市化发展不再仅仅着眼于经济的增长，而是更加注重生态建设，关注城市发展与环境协调。但目前的现实是，城市发展以建设用地扩张为主要特征，城市开放空间减少的趋势没有得到有效遏制，并带来了一系列的土地利用结构变化，城市内部用地矛盾加剧，城市居民享有的开放空间资源不断受到削减。长远看来，开放空间的不合理减少会削弱城市竞争力，破坏城市生态系统平衡。本文以武汉市主城区内的开放空间为研究对象，运用景观生态学、城市规划、地理信息系统的相关理论知识，基于多期遥感与土地利用数据、不同社会发展阶段下的社会经济数据以及相关文献资料，对武汉市开放空间的三大组成要素——湖泊、绿地、城郊耕地进行统一动态综合分析，梳理出2001－2010年武汉市开放空间的数量时间序列的变化、地域演变差异以及开放空间内部的结构变动规律。在总结出开放空间时空演变规律的基础上，对开放空间时空演变现象背后的驱动因子进行了更加深入的分析探讨，，采用回归分析的方法对武汉市开放空间演变的核心驱动因子进行提取。研究表明：武汉市2001－2010年开放空间总体数量减少了8929.51公顷，减少幅度为41.04%，人均开放空间水平由研究期初的53.68m2，减少为研究期末的26.58m~2。同时武汉市开放空间存在明显的地域差异。从相对数量的比较上，2001年武昌区开放空间资源是开放空间资源最少的汉口地区的24.32倍，人均开放空间数量相差9.33倍；2010年武昌区与汉口的开放空间总量差距略有缩小为20.94倍，人均开放空间数量差6.52倍。从绝对数量的变化上，2001－2010年武汉三镇中开放空间变动最为剧烈的是汉阳地区，减少幅度为51.26%，但是减少数量最多的却是武昌，开放空间减少总量为7480.85公顷。开放空间总量不平衡现象突出。从三大地类变化的区域差异上可以看出，耕地资源在武昌区变动明显，耕地的相对变化率为1.04；湖泊资源减少最为剧烈的是汉阳地区，相对变化率高达2.182；绿地资源区域变化差异最为明显，武昌地区绿地相对变化率为3.6；相反，汉阳地区现绿地相对变化率为-1.286，变化方向与城市绿地整体变化方向相反，且变化幅度大于整体水平。三大地类之间也存在明显的变化差异，武汉市开放空间主要组成部分为湖泊；2010年武汉市城郊耕地保有量仅为2001年的35.44%，减少数量惊人，减少幅度高达64.56%；绿地资源虽然相对数量较少，但年际变动幅度较大，且变化强度高于耕地、湖泊。在总结了2001－2010年开放空间的时空演变的基础上，进一步研究了开放空间演变的驱动机制。综合分析地区社会经济背景，结合以往研究成果的基础上，选取了武汉市总人口（X1）、非农业人口占总人口比重（X2）、国内生产总值（X3）、第一产业比重（X4）、二三产业产值（X5）、财政收入（X6）、人均可支配收入（X7）、人均GDP（X8）、人均消费支出（X9）、全社会固定资产投资（X10）等10个因子。研究发现人均可支配收入与二三产业产值2个因子分别从生活水平与经济发展的角度解释了与开放空间变化最为相关的因素，成为影响武汉市2001－2010年开放空间变化的核心驱动因子，对开放空间的时空演变有显著贡献，且相关性通过了回归检测。
[Abstract]:With China's urbanization rate breaking through 50% in 2011 and reaching 51.3% historically, China's future urbanization development will not only focus on economic growth, but also pay more attention to ecological construction and urban development and environmental coordination. In the long run, the unreasonable reduction of open space will weaken the competitiveness of the city and destroy the balance of urban ecosystem. Based on Multi-period remote sensing and land use data, socio-economic data at different stages of social development and relevant literature, the three main elements of open space in Wuhan, namely, lake, green land and suburban cultivated land, are studied by using the theories of landscape ecology, urban planning and geographic information system. Based on the unified dynamic comprehensive analysis, this paper combs out the quantitative time series changes, regional evolution differences and the internal structure changes of the open space in Wuhan from 2001 to 2010. Through analysis and discussion, the core driving factors of the evolution of Wuhan open space are extracted by regression analysis.
The results show that the total number of open space in Wuhan City decreased by 8929.51 hectares from 2001 to 2010, with a decrease of 41.04%. The per capita open space level decreased from 53.68 m2 at the beginning of the study period to 26.58 m2 at the end of the study period. Meanwhile, there are obvious regional differences in the open space of Wuhan City. In 2010, the total open space gap between Wuchang District and Hankou District narrowed slightly to 20.94 times, and the per capita open space gap was 6.52 times. In Hanyang area, the decrease rate was 51.26%, but Wuchang was the largest, and the total amount of open space was 7480.85 hectares. In Hanyang area, the relative change rate was as high as 2.182; the difference of green space resources was most obvious, the relative change rate of green space in Wuchang area was 3.6; on the contrary, the relative change rate of green space in Hanyang area was - 1.286, the change direction was opposite to the overall change direction of urban green space, and the change extent was larger than the overall level. There are also obvious differences among land types. The main component of open space in Wuhan is lakes. In 2010, the amount of cultivated land in suburbs of Wuhan was only 35.44% of that in 2001, with an astonishing decrease of 64.56%.
On the basis of summarizing the spatio-temporal evolution of open space from 2001 to 2010, this paper further studies the driving mechanism of the evolution of open space. On the basis of comprehensive analysis of regional socio-economic background and previous research results, the total population (X1), non-agricultural population (X2), gross domestic product (X3) and primary industry of Wuhan are selected. Ten factors, such as proportion (X4), output value of secondary and tertiary industries (X5), fiscal revenue (X6), per capita disposable income (X7), per capita GDP (X8), per capita consumption expenditure (X9), and investment in fixed assets (X10), were found. The study found that per capita disposable income and output value of secondary and tertiary industries explained the change of open space from the Perspective of living standards and economic development. The most correlative factor is the core driving factor that influences the change of open space in Wuhan from 2001 to 2010. It has a significant contribution to the spatial and temporal evolution of open space, and the correlation has passed the regression test.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU984.113;F299.23

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