气候变化对天津市建筑采暖和制冷能耗的影响

发布时间：2018-08-24 09:04

【摘要】：天津市作为我国北方经济中心,城市化发展程度高,政府对环境保护、节约能源、改善居住条件等问题十分重视,不断推进和加强对建筑节能的管理力度。随经济的增长,天津市建筑能源消耗总量持续增加,同时能源安全问题也日趋严峻,特别是建筑极端能耗的出现势必会对节能工作以及建筑设备运行造成威胁。研究气候变化对建筑能耗的影响可以为能源规划、能源战略的制定以及能源消费的预测提供科学依据。根据天津市1961—2009年气温、风速、太阳辐射通量等气候资料,利用TRNSYS能耗模拟软件获得办公、商业和民宅三种典型建筑类型采暖和制冷能耗,采用常规统计、Mann Kendal1检验以及多元回归等分析方法,研究能耗及极端能耗日数的发生和发展情况以及气候变化对舒适度、建筑能耗和极端能耗日数的影响。结果表明： (1)1961—2009年天津市采暖期和空调期的平均气温、最低、最高气温以及湿球温度均呈上升趋势,风速、日照时数、地面太阳辐射等均呈下降趋势。气候要素的突变时间集中在80年代末和90年代初。 (2)1961—2009年天津市低温日数显著下降,而高温日数整体变化不大,采暖期极冷不舒适日数、空调期热不舒适日数均呈显著下降趋势,与同期平均气温之间存在显著性相关,且不舒适气候的随机性呈增多趋势。 (3)天津市办公、商业和民宅建筑采暖能耗均呈显著下降趋势,而制冷能耗无显著变化；突变点集中于80年代末,制冷能耗突变时间晚于采暖能耗。建筑采暖能耗受多种气象要素的影响,其中平均气温影响最大；7、8月制冷能耗主要受气温的影响,而6、9月制冷能耗则受空气温、湿度的共同影响。 (4)天津市不同类型建筑采暖和制冷极端能耗日数均呈下降趋势,其中采暖极端能耗日数下降趋势显著,下降速率为3.5d/10a左右。采暖期和空调期过渡月份的极端能耗日数出现较少,两个时期极端能耗对总能耗的影响减少,其中采暖极端能耗对总能耗的贡献率下降趋势明显,约4%/10a左右。 (5)天津市采暖和制冷极端能耗日数与高低温日数以及不舒适日数均具有良好的相关性。采暖极端能耗日数主要受气温的影响,而制冷极端能耗日数除受气温的影响外,还与湿度和风速变化有关。因此,在采暖期和空调期需要结合不同气候影响因子在设计和运行两方面考虑建筑设备运行安全和节能减排。
[Abstract]:As the economic center of northern China, Tianjin has a high degree of urbanization. The government attaches great importance to environmental protection, energy conservation, improvement of living conditions, and constantly promotes and strengthens the management of building energy conservation. With the growth of economy, the total energy consumption of buildings in Tianjin continues to increase, and the energy security problem is becoming more and more serious. Especially, the emergence of extreme energy consumption in buildings is bound to pose a threat to energy conservation work and the operation of construction equipment. The research on the influence of climate change on building energy consumption can provide scientific basis for energy planning, energy strategy formulation and energy consumption prediction. Based on the climatic data of temperature, wind speed and solar radiation flux in Tianjin during 1961-2009, the heating and cooling energy consumption of three typical building types, office, commercial and residential buildings, was obtained by using TRNSYS energy consumption simulation software. The occurrence and development of energy consumption and extreme energy consumption days and the influence of climate change on comfort, building energy consumption and extreme energy consumption days were studied by means of statistical Kendal1 test and multivariate regression analysis. The results are as follows: (1) the average air temperature, the lowest temperature, the highest temperature and the wet bulb temperature in the heating and air conditioning periods of Tianjin from 1961 to 2009 all showed an upward trend, while the wind speed, sunshine hours and surface solar radiation all showed a downward trend. The abrupt change time of climatic elements was concentrated in the late 1980s and early 1990s. (2) the number of days of low temperature decreased significantly in Tianjin from 1961 to 2009, but the total number of days of high temperature did not change as a whole. The number of thermal uncomfortable days in air conditioning period showed a significant downward trend, and there was a significant correlation with the mean temperature in the same period, and the randomness of the uncomfortable climate was increasing. (3) Tianjin office, The heating energy consumption of commercial and residential buildings decreased significantly, but the energy consumption of refrigeration did not change significantly, and the abrupt point was concentrated at the end of 1980s, and the sudden change time of refrigeration energy consumption was later than that of heating energy consumption. The energy consumption of building heating is affected by many meteorological factors, of which the average temperature is the biggest, the energy consumption of refrigeration in August is mainly affected by temperature, and the energy consumption of refrigeration in June and September is affected by air temperature. (4) the number of extreme energy consumption days of heating and refrigeration in different types of buildings in Tianjin showed a downward trend, in which the extreme energy consumption days of heating decreased significantly, and the decreasing rate was about 3.5d/10a. The number of extreme energy consumption days in the transition months of heating period and air conditioning period was less, and the influence of extreme energy consumption on total energy consumption was reduced in the two periods, and the contribution rate of heating extreme energy consumption to total energy consumption decreased obviously. About 4 / 10 a. (5) the days of extreme energy consumption of heating and refrigeration in Tianjin have a good correlation with the days of high and low temperature and the number of uncomfortable days. The heating extreme energy consumption days are mainly affected by the temperature, while the refrigeration extreme energy consumption days are related to the changes of humidity and wind speed in addition to the temperature. Therefore, in the heating period and air conditioning period, it is necessary to consider the operational safety and energy saving and emission reduction of building equipment in both design and operation in combination with different climate impact factors.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU119;TU83

【参考文献】