济南市城市空间格局变化及其对生态服务价值的影响

发布时间：2018-09-07 12:20

【摘要】：改革开放以来,伴随着我国城市化的快速推进,城市规模迅速扩张,城市空间结构不断重组,导致基本农田大量流失,区域景观和生态环境质量日益下降,造成了温室效应、水土流失、水质污染以及生物多样性锐减等问题,因而土地利用与覆被变化越来越引起各级政府和学者的广泛关注。生态服务价值是生态系统的结构、过程和功能所直接或间接提供的生命支持产品和服务,在维系生命、支持系统和环境的动态平衡方面起着不可取代的重要作用,对促进经济、环境和社会的协调发展具有重要的作用。因而进行城市空间扩展格局演变的动态模拟及其生态服务价值的响应,对科学管理城市用地空间增长、实现城市生态环境可持续发展,具有重要的实践意义与应用价值。本文以济南市绕城高速以内作为研究区,基于RS、GIS软件平台,获取了研究区1989、1996、2004、2009年土地利用类型图,分析了近20年来的土地利用与覆被变化特征,并采用SLEUTH城市扩展模型对近20年(1989-2009年)来的城市扩展进行了模拟与重建；在此基础上根据不同生态服务功能保护强度设定基于现有发展趋势、农田适度保护、融合景观生态战略三种预测情景,对未来20年(2010-2029年)的城市空间扩展及土地利用覆被变化进行了情景预测,最后,参照中国陆地生态系统服务单位面积价值,结合生态服务价值敏感性分析,根据针对研究区生态服务评价建立的体系,分别针对过去20年及预测的未来20年土地覆被数据进行生态服务价值定量估算,分析生态服务价值的时空变化特征,探讨不同发展情景下,城市空间扩展对未来城市生态服务功能的潜在影响,挖掘影响城市生态服务价值变化的驱动因素,以期为城市用地空间增长管理与区域可持续发展提供科学依据与决策支持。研究结果表明：1)近20年来,随着城镇化的快速推进,研究区城市土地利用结构变化明显,建设用地面积不断增加,增加量为100.69 km2,年均增长率为2.91%；农田和绿地的面积则呈减少趋势,减少量分别为95.35 km2和8.47 km2,减少面积的87.98%被建设用地所取代,农田是建设用地的最大转入来源。2)在三种不同发展情景下,城市建设用地增长规模和速度差异较为显著,情景I(按现有发展趋势增长)情景II(农田适度保护)情景Ⅲ(融合景观生态战略),表明将生态敏感性分析和生态网络构建作为研究区的核心景观生态战略融入SLEUTH模型的排除图层中,有效地控制了绿地与农田被大量侵占的趋势,使得城市建设用地增长更理性、更科学。3)生态服务价值的计算结果表明,近20年来研究区生态服务总价值持续下降,由1989年的￥248.65×106降至2009年的￥205.79×106；农田和绿地对总服务价值变化的影响最大,分别占总减少量的51.34%和35.28%,在未来20年的三种预测情景中,情景Ⅲ(融合景观生态战略)对生态系统的保护效果最佳,能够有效控制生态服务价值大幅减少的趋势,有利于生态环境保护。本文旨在探求土地利用动态变化及其生态系统服务价值的响应,研究结论可为济南市未来城市用地空间增长管理、城市规划、土地利用规划、土地资源可持续利用和社会经济可持续发展提供决策支持。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid urbanization of China, urban scale has expanded rapidly, urban spatial structure has been restructured, resulting in a large number of loss of basic farmland, regional landscape and ecological environment quality is declining, resulting in greenhouse effect, soil erosion, water pollution and biodiversity, and so on, land use and biodiversity. Eco-service value is the product and service of life support directly or indirectly provided by the structure, process and function of ecosystem. It plays an irreplaceable and important role in maintaining life, supporting system and dynamic balance of environment, and promoting economy, environment and society. Therefore, the dynamic simulation of urban spatial expansion pattern evolution and the response of its ecological service value have important practical significance and application value for scientific management of urban land use spatial growth and sustainable development of urban ecological environment. Based on RS and GIS software platform, the land use type maps of 1989, 1996, 2004 and 2009 were obtained, and the land use and cover change characteristics in the past 20 years were analyzed. The urban expansion in the past 20 years (1989-2009) was simulated and reconstructed by SLEUTH urban expansion model. Based on the current trend of development, farmland protection and landscape ecological strategy, the urban spatial expansion and land use change in the next 20 years (2010-2029) were forecasted. Finally, according to the land ecosystem service unit area value of China, combined with the sensitivity of ecological service value. Based on the evaluation system of ecological services in the study area, the ecological service value was estimated quantitatively according to the land cover data of the past 20 years and the future 20 years respectively. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of ecological service value were analyzed, and the potential of urban spatial expansion for future urban ecological service function under different development scenarios was discussed. The results show that: 1) With the rapid development of urbanization in the past 20 years, the urban land use structure has changed significantly, and the area of construction land has been continuously changing. The increase was 100.69 km2, the average annual growth rate was 2.91%; the area of farmland and green land showed a decreasing trend, the decrease was 95.35 km2 and 8.47 km2, respectively. 87.98% of the reduced area was replaced by construction land. Farmland was the largest source of construction land transfer. 2) Under three different development scenarios, the growth scale and speed of urban construction land were increased. Scenario I, Scenario II, Scenario II, Scenario II I, Scenario II I, Scenario II I, Scenario II I, Scenario II, Scenario II I, Scenario II I, Scenario II, Scenario II, Scenario II, Scenario II I, Scenario II, Scenario II, Scenario II I, Scenario II, Scenario II I, Sc The results show that the total value of ecological services in the study area has declined continuously in the past 20 years, from 248.65 106 in 1989 to 205.79 106 in 2009. Farmland and green land have the greatest impact on the total value of services, accounting for 51.3% of the total decrease respectively. 4% and 35.28% of the three scenarios in the next 20 years, Scenario III (Integrated Landscape Ecology Strategy) has the best protection effect on the ecosystem, and can effectively control the trend of significant decrease in the value of ecological services, which is conducive to the protection of the ecological environment. The conclusion can provide decision support for future urban land use spatial growth management, urban planning, land use planning, sustainable use of land resources and social and economic sustainable development of Jinan.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU984.115

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