PPP项目特许期决策模型研究
发布时间：2018-11-11 12:35
【摘要】：近年来,PPP项目被广泛应用于基础设施建设领域。PPP项目投资巨大,周期常在十几年甚至几十年以上,存在的不确定因素多且影响大；而PPP项目涉及到政府部门、私营经济实体和民众三方利益,特许期长短往往成为PPP项目成败的关键。已有特许期决策模型对不确定因素的量化过于主观,更科学地考虑项目不确定因素的特许期决策方法研究,对PPP项目实际应用具有重要意义。论文通过文献统计和调查问卷识别出20种不确定因素,并确定其中的关键因素为：特许期、利率和年均收益,提出了相应的量化方法。针对该方法中存在的12个相对重要系数构建了评价矩阵,考虑到专家评分中存在“噪声数据”,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)结合双S型进化函数对评价矩阵中的权重多方向一阶梯度双向寻优,结合迭代终止准则再分配权重值。该自适应模型能够剔除“噪声数据”,在一定程度上缓和了人们评判事物的主观性思维差异问题,优化了特许期决策结果。最后以某高速公路为例,比较了优化前后及传统NPV、IRR方法得出的特许期值,分析了相应的NPV敏感性。通过实证分析,验证了论文中提出的方法和模型的可行性。图11幅,表7个,参考文献93篇。
[Abstract]:In recent years, PPP projects are widely used in the field of infrastructure construction. PPP project investment is huge, the cycle is often more than ten years or even more than a few decades, there are many uncertain factors and great impact; The PPP project involves the tripartite interests of government, private economic entities and the public, and the duration of the concession is often the key to the success or failure of the PPP project. The existing concession decision model is too subjective for the quantification of uncertain factors, and it is of great significance for the practical application of PPP project to study the concession decision method which considers the uncertain factors of the project more scientifically. In this paper, 20 uncertain factors are identified by literature statistics and questionnaire, and the key factors are: concession period, interest rate and average annual income, and the corresponding quantitative method is put forward. An evaluation matrix is constructed for the 12 relative important coefficients in this method, considering the existence of "noise data" in the expert score. Fuzzy Analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) combined with double S-type evolution function is used to optimize the weights of multi-direction first-order gradient in the evaluation matrix, and the weight value is redistributed with the iterative termination criterion. The adaptive model can eliminate "noise data", alleviate the subjective thinking difference of people judging things to a certain extent, and optimize the decision result of concession period. Finally, taking an expressway as an example, the concession period obtained by traditional NPV,IRR method and before and after optimization is compared, and the sensitivity of NPV is analyzed. The feasibility of the proposed method and model is verified by empirical analysis. 11 figures, 7 tables, 93 references.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU71
本文编号：2324852
[Abstract]:In recent years, PPP projects are widely used in the field of infrastructure construction. PPP project investment is huge, the cycle is often more than ten years or even more than a few decades, there are many uncertain factors and great impact; The PPP project involves the tripartite interests of government, private economic entities and the public, and the duration of the concession is often the key to the success or failure of the PPP project. The existing concession decision model is too subjective for the quantification of uncertain factors, and it is of great significance for the practical application of PPP project to study the concession decision method which considers the uncertain factors of the project more scientifically. In this paper, 20 uncertain factors are identified by literature statistics and questionnaire, and the key factors are: concession period, interest rate and average annual income, and the corresponding quantitative method is put forward. An evaluation matrix is constructed for the 12 relative important coefficients in this method, considering the existence of "noise data" in the expert score. Fuzzy Analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) combined with double S-type evolution function is used to optimize the weights of multi-direction first-order gradient in the evaluation matrix, and the weight value is redistributed with the iterative termination criterion. The adaptive model can eliminate "noise data", alleviate the subjective thinking difference of people judging things to a certain extent, and optimize the decision result of concession period. Finally, taking an expressway as an example, the concession period obtained by traditional NPV,IRR method and before and after optimization is compared, and the sensitivity of NPV is analyzed. The feasibility of the proposed method and model is verified by empirical analysis. 11 figures, 7 tables, 93 references.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU71
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