长江三角洲地区不透水面率：驱动机制与水环境阈值效应

发布时间：2018-12-14 18:49

【摘要】：长江三角洲地区是我国高度城市化区域之一，在快速城市化进程中该区域不透水面快速扩展，成为影响河流生态系统健康的重要因素。理解掌握不透水面率的驱动机制，以及不透水面与水环境之间的压力响应关系，对长江三角洲地区环境规划管理具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。本文以长江三角洲地区的典型区域—上海为研究区域，采用典型样区分析，结合GIS土地利用遥感解译方法，确定了上海地区各土地利用类型的不透水面系数，分析了上海地区总不透水面率的空间分布特征，并对总不透水面率的社会经济驱动力进行了初步探讨；同时基于CLUE-S模型，对不透水面分布的空间驱动力进行探究，并模拟预测了区域未来不透水面的空间分布；在此基础上，进一步探讨了不同空间尺度上不透水面与当前长三角地区重点关注的水环境指标之间的非线性关系，诊断确定了影响河网水环境的不透水面数量阈值。论文主要结论包括： 1）上海地区PTIA为21.33%，中心城区明显高于郊区。中心城区PTIA为64.90%，是郊区的3.37倍。PTIA大于50%的区域占上海地区总面积的12.71%，大于30%的区域占上海地区总面积的25.72%。 2）不同土地利用类型的不透水面系数差异较大。工业用地和旧式住宅不透水面系数较大分别为0.75和0.73，公园绿地较小为0.30。不透水面系数大小依次为：道路交通用地工业用地公共建筑用地旧式住宅新式住宅别墅公园绿地农业用地和自然村落住宅。 3）对PTIA影响最为显著的社会经济驱动力为人口密度，这一驱动力在较大空间尺度上表现更佳。PTIA与人口密度、单位土地面积GDP和单位土地面积工业总产值均呈较显著对数关系，其中人口密度相对更为显著。对数关系在“市-区”尺度比“市-郊区镇”和“郊区-镇”尺度表现更显著，即驱动作用在较大空间尺度上表现更佳。 4）对区域不透水面分布影响较为显著的空间驱动力是与次干道路和次干河道的距离，其中与次干道路的距离相对显著，与次干道路的距离越近，，不透水面分布越多，透水面和水域分布越少。 5） PTIA与河网水环境指标之间存在较明显的阈值效应，跃变点为PTIA=50％，初步提出在未来长三角地区城市规划建设中可作为控制指标之一。PTIA与水质之间表现为非线性关系，当PTIA50%时，水质指标（DO除外）基本保持稳定，而在PTIA50%时，水质指标则表现为明显的上升趋势。DO指标与其他指标存在显著差异，随PTIA不断增加而呈持续线性下降趋势。在100m~1500m五个空间尺度上，PTIA与河网水环境指标之间的阈值效应未表现显著的空间尺度效应。
[Abstract]:The Yangtze River Delta region is one of the highly urbanized regions in China. In the process of rapid urbanization, the impermeable surface of the Yangtze River Delta region expands rapidly and becomes an important factor affecting the health of the river ecosystem. Understanding the driving mechanism of impermeable surface rate and the pressure response relationship between impermeable surface and water environment is of great theoretical and practical significance for environmental planning and management in the Yangtze River Delta region. Taking Shanghai, a typical region of the Yangtze River Delta, as the study area, using the typical area analysis and GIS land use remote sensing interpretation method, the impermeable surface coefficient of each land use type in Shanghai is determined. The spatial distribution characteristics of the total impermeable water surface rate in Shanghai are analyzed, and the socio-economic driving force of the total impermeable water surface rate is preliminarily discussed. At the same time, based on the CLUE-S model, the spatial driving force of the impermeable surface distribution is explored, and the spatial distribution of the impermeable water surface in the future is simulated and predicted. On this basis, the nonlinear relationship between the impermeable surface on different spatial scales and the key water environmental indicators concerned in the Yangtze River Delta region is further discussed, and the threshold value of the number of impermeable surfaces affecting the water environment of the river network is determined by diagnostics. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the PTIA of Shanghai is 21.33, and the central district is obviously higher than the suburb. The PTIA of the central urban area is 64.90, which is 3.37 times that of the suburb. The area with PTIA more than 50% accounts for 12.71% of the total area of Shanghai, and the area more than 30% accounts for 25.72% of the total area of Shanghai. 2) the coefficient of impermeability of different land use types is different greatly. The coefficient of impermeability of industrial land and old residence was 0.75 and 0.73, respectively, and that of park green space was 0.30. The coefficient of impermeable surface is as follows: road traffic land industrial land public building land old style residence villa park green land agricultural land and natural village residence. 3) the most significant socio-economic driving force affecting PTIA is population density, which is better on larger spatial scale. PTIA and population density. There is a significant logarithmic relationship between the GDP per unit land area and the gross industrial output value of the unit land area, among which the population density is more significant. The logarithmic relationship is more obvious in the scale of "city-district" than "city-suburban town" and "suburb-town", that is to say, the driving effect is better on larger spatial scale than on the scale of "city-suburban town" and "suburb-town". 4) the spatial driving force affecting the distribution of regional impermeable surface is the distance between the secondary trunk road and the secondary trunk river channel, and the distance between the secondary trunk road and the secondary trunk road is relatively significant, and the closer the distance from the secondary trunk road, the more the impermeable surface distribution. The less the water surface and the water body, the less it distributes. 5) there is obvious threshold effect between PTIA and water environmental index of river network. The jump point is PTIA=50%, which can be used as one of the control indexes in urban planning and construction of Yangtze River Delta region in the future. The relationship between PTIA and water quality is nonlinear. When PTIA50%, the water quality index (except DO) remained stable basically, but in PTIA50%, the water quality index showed an obvious upward trend. There was significant difference between DO index and other indexes, and with the increasing of PTIA, the water quality index showed a continuous linear downward trend. On the five spatial scales of 100m~1500m, there was no significant spatial scale effect between PTIA and the water environmental index of river network.
【学位授予单位】：上海大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X143

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