菏泽物流园区需求量预测和布局规划研究

发布时间：2019-03-19 08:34

【摘要】：在经济全球化的背景下,发展现代物流业已经成为提升一个城市综合经济竞争能力的有效手段,物流园区作为现代物流系统的重要节点,对于提高物流的组织化水平和集约化程度发展具有重要意义。近几年,菏泽市物流业的迅速发展,对其物流的处理能力也提出了严峻要求,菏泽《十二五规划》也提出要大力发展物流载体。本文结合菏泽市实际,对菏泽市物流园区的需求量预测和布局规划进行了深入的研究。首先,本文对菏泽物流园区的需求量进行了分析,在国内外物流园区需求量预测研究现状的基础上,先运用了单一模型对其货运吞吐量进行预测,得到了基于灰色预测模型、回归预测模型和指数平滑模型的预测值,然后提出了利用基于遗传算法的组合预测模型,得到个单一模型的权重系数,得到了相对误差较小的组合预测值,接着对集装箱量以及粮食等物流生产资料进行了预测,为判断菏泽物流园区对市场的处理能力和后续的功能区面积确定和布局规划提供了依据。其次,本文对菏泽地区现状进行了详细的SWOT分析,确定了菏泽物流园区的类型、功能区定位及发展方向。并根据求得的菏泽市未来物流需求预测量,对其功能区的模块和面积进行了测算。接着运用SLP布局规划方法,对各功能区间的物流关系和非物流关系进行了分析。绘制了位置相关图,得到了备选布局方案。最后,本文在基于德尔菲法对各方案的指标进行确定的基础上,运用熵权法,对备选布局方案进行了评价,通过计算各备选布局方案的权值,得出最优布局方案。并在其后绘制了菏泽物流园区规划建设布局图。接着分析了菏泽物流园区的运营模式,并总结了本文研究的成果和不足。
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, the development of modern logistics industry has become an effective means to enhance the competitiveness of a city's comprehensive economy. Logistics park as an important node of modern logistics system, It is of great significance to improve the level of organization and intensive development of logistics. In recent years, with the rapid development of the logistics industry in Heze City, the handling capacity of its logistics has also been put forward with severe requirements. The 12th five-year Plan of Heze has also proposed that the logistics carrier should be developed vigorously. In this paper, the demand forecast and layout planning of the logistics park in Heze city are studied in depth according to the actual situation of Heze city. First of all, this paper analyzes the demand of Heze logistics park. On the basis of the current situation of domestic and foreign logistics park demand forecasting, the single model is used to forecast the freight throughput, and the grey forecasting model is obtained. Then the combination prediction model based on genetic algorithm is proposed to obtain the weight coefficient of a single model, and the combination prediction value with smaller relative error is obtained, which is based on the combination prediction model of regression prediction model and exponential smoothing model, and the combination prediction model based on genetic algorithm is proposed in this paper. Then the volume of containers and the logistics production materials such as grain are forecasted, which provides the basis for judging the processing ability of Heze logistics park to the market and the following functional area determination and layout planning. Secondly, this paper has carried on the detailed SWOT analysis to the Heze area present situation, has determined the Heze logistics park type, the functional area localization and the development direction. According to the future logistics demand pre-measurement of Heze City, the module and area of the functional area are calculated. Then the SLP layout planning method is used to analyze the relationship between logistics and non-logistics in each functional area. The location correlation diagram is drawn and the alternative layout scheme is obtained. Finally, based on Delphi method, this paper evaluates the alternative layout scheme by entropy method, and obtains the optimal layout scheme by calculating the weights of each alternative layout scheme. After that, the layout of Heze logistics park planning and construction is drawn. Then it analyzes the operation mode of Heze logistics park, and summarizes the achievements and shortcomings of this paper.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU984.13

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