青岛世园会园区建设项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2019-04-28 12:42

【摘要】：2014年青岛世园会是继青岛市成功举办20()8年奥帆赛之后规格最高、影响最大的一次国际性盛会,是青岛市首次承办的高级别的世界性园艺博览会。世园会园区建设项目是一项投资大、国际影响范围广、建设周期长的复杂工程,其在建设运营过程中面临着来自诸多方面的风险,如何选择正确的方法识别评价这些风险并提出对应的防范措施,直接影响着世园会的展出效果,也影响着国家和青岛市的对外开放形象。因此本论文研究青岛世园会园区建设项目的风险评价具有重要的指导意义。本论文以青岛世园会园区建设项目的风险评价为主要的研究内容,首先介绍了项目风险评价的国内外研究现状和世园会园区建设项目的相关理论基础,包括世园会园区项目的特点、项目风险评价的概念、特点和主要方法；然后论文的第三部分介绍了青岛世园会园区项目与风险评价有关的详细情况,包括该项目的外部条件、建设规模、青岛旅游市场发展现状及预测；第四部分以风险识别的原则和目的为依据,使用多种方法相结合的方式来对该项目进行风险识别,最终确定出外部条件风险、市场风险、资金风险、工程管理风险和社会风险五个一级风险和若干二级风险；第五部分首先根据上部分的结论建立起青岛世园会园区建设项目风险评价指标体系,然后选用模糊综合评价方法、层次分析法和专家打分法量化这些风险指标并赋予权重,最后进行项目风险的综合评价,得到风险评价的结论为青岛世园会建设项目整体处于一般风险和较低风险的概率较大,项目建设是可行的,市场风险和资金风险较大,该部分还提出了每种风险对应的防范措施；本论文的最后一部分全面总结了文章的研究结论,并指出了研究的不足之处以及今后要深入研究的方向。本文通过对世园会园区项目进行风险评价,建立了该项目的风险评价指标体系和风险评价模型,并将其运用到青岛世园会园区基础设施建设(调整)项目中,为项目的风险防范提供了一定的指导。
[Abstract]:Qingdao Expo 2014 is the highest standard and the most influential international event after Qingdao successfully held 20 () 8-year Olympic sailing events. It is the first high-level horticultural expo hosted by Qingdao City. The construction project of the Expo Park is a complex project with large investment, wide international influence and long construction cycle. It faces risks from many aspects in the course of construction and operation. How to select the right method to identify and evaluate these risks and put forward the corresponding preventive measures will directly affect the exhibition effect of the Expo and also affect the image of the country and Qingdao opening to the outside world. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the risk assessment of Qingdao World Garden Park construction project in this paper. This paper takes the risk assessment of Qingdao World Garden Park construction project as the main research content. Firstly, it introduces the domestic and foreign research status of the project risk assessment and the relevant theoretical basis of the construction project of the World Garden Expo Park. Including the characteristics of the Expo Park project, the concept of project risk assessment, characteristics and main methods; Then the third part of the paper introduces the details of the project and risk assessment of Qingdao World Garden Expo Park, including the external conditions of the project, the construction scale, the current situation of Qingdao tourism market development and prediction; The fourth part, based on the principle and purpose of risk identification, uses multiple methods to identify the risk of the project, and finally determines the external condition risk, market risk and capital risk. Project management risk and social risk five first-level risks and several secondary risks; The fifth part first establishes the risk evaluation index system of Qingdao World Garden Park construction project according to the conclusion of the above part, then selects the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the analytic hierarchy process and the expert scoring method to quantify these risk indicators and give weight to them. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation of the project risk is carried out, and the conclusion of the risk evaluation is that the overall probability of general risk and lower risk of Qingdao Expo construction project is high, the project construction is feasible, the market risk and capital risk are large. In this part, the corresponding preventive measures for each kind of risk are put forward. The last part of this paper summarizes the conclusions of this paper, and points out the shortcomings of the research and the direction of further research in the future. In this paper, the risk evaluation index system and risk evaluation model of the project are established through the risk evaluation of the Expo Park Project, and it is applied to the infrastructure construction (adjustment) project of the Qingdao World Garden Expo Park, and the risk evaluation index system and the risk evaluation model of the project are established in this paper. It provides some guidance for the risk prevention of the project.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;TU71

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