城市供水预报与应急调度技术研究及应用

发布时间：2019-06-25 12:35

【摘要】：伴随着全球气候变化,我国气候异常和极端天气事件频发,由极端干旱引发的城市供水危机时有发生；与此同时突发性水污染事故频发,尤其是美国发生“9.11”事件及松花江化工污染事件后,城市供水安全问题日趋严峻和突显；而由洪涝、地震、旱灾、火灾、风暴潮、沙尘暴、泥石流等自然地质灾害、战争、人为破坏等重大突发事故均可能破坏饮用水源,毁坏供水管线、供水设施以及水厂,造成灾期和灾后一段时期内无法供应符合卫生安全要求的饮用水局面,给人类的生命和财产造成巨大痛苦和损失。因此,为了预防由极端天气和突发事件引起的城市供水不安全问题,保障我国城市供水安全与可持续发展,在总结国内外研究现状的基础上,提出了城市供水应急预警理论基础,构建了城市枯季供需水预报技术、应急预警技术、应急调度模型及应急管理系统,并以安阳市为例,分析和探讨了安阳市平原区城市供水应急预警模型的构建与实际应用。其中主要成果包括以下几方面： (1)系统阐述了城市供水预报预警及应急调度理论基础。介绍了城市供水预报方法、城市供水突发事件的分类分级、应急预警组成、预警级别及信息发布,给出了城市供水应急预案和应急调度措施。 (2)城市枯季供需水预报与预警技术根据我国枯季径流的特点,建立了基于BP神经网络的水库枯季径流预报模型技术、以地下水数值模拟模型为基础基于水均衡方程的地下水可开采量预报模型以及枯季需水量分析预报模型和城市枯季供需水预报模型,并提出了城市供水安全预警技术,包括预警等级划分、审批权限、发布流程、预警指标和预警标准(水库、地下水源地等)等研究方法和技术。 (3)基于规则的城市供水应急调度模型技术以城市供水应急调度网络图为基础,建立了基于规则的城市供水应急调度模型,即在严格遵循事先给定的一系列系统运行规则基础上,尽可能保证供水安全或所受影响最小,依据城市供水水源优先利用顺序和用水户优先满足顺序,采取“优先水源先分配、优先用户先满足”的调度方式、设置工程分水参数、水库调度运行规则、地下水利用规则、水源转换参数、水源利用限制、用水需求等,通过城市供水应急调度逐日调节计算,快速解决在多水源、多用户、多工程的城市供水系统中存在的水文补偿作用、工程补偿作用、应急水源利用与调度等复杂的调节计算问题,及时获得面向城市供水安全的应急调度方案。 (4)城市供水安全应急预警与应急管理系统以现有数据库为基础,利用本论文建立的预报、预警和应急调度模型,采用面向对象的设计理念,开发了城市供水安全应急预警与调度系统,实现了数据管理(信息服务)、预案管理、供需水情势预报、应急预警(报警)、应急调度等功能,为供水安全应急管理提供了决策平台。 (5)构建了安阳市城市供水安全应急预警模型。根据安阳市的供水特点,利用本文提出的预警理论、预警技术、预警模型和管理系统,给出了预警标准和预警结果,并在此基础上按不同类型的突发事件分别设置了不同情景进行分析,最终给出安阳市安全供水的调度方案。
[Abstract]:Along with the global climate change, China's climate anomaly and extreme weather events are frequent, the urban water supply crisis caused by extreme drought often happens; at the same time, the sudden water pollution accident is frequent, especially after the "9.11" and the chemical pollution incident of the Songhua River, The problems of urban water supply safety are becoming more and more serious and more and more serious, and major sudden accidents, such as flood, earthquake, drought, fire, storm surge, sandstorm, debris flow, etc., can destroy the source of drinking water, destroy the water supply pipeline, water supply facilities and water works. The supply of drinking water in line with the health and safety requirements cannot be supplied during the period of the disaster and the post-disaster period, resulting in significant suffering and loss of human life and property. Therefore, in order to prevent the unsafe problems of urban water supply caused by extreme weather and emergency, and to guarantee the safe and sustainable development of urban water supply in our country, on the basis of summing up the domestic and foreign research status, this paper puts forward the theoretical foundation of urban water supply emergency early warning. The supply and demand water forecast technology, the emergency early warning technology, the emergency dispatch model and the emergency management system of the urban dry season are constructed, and the construction and practical application of the urban water supply emergency early warning model of Anyang City are analyzed and discussed in Anyang City as an example. The main achievements include the following: (1) The early warning and emergency dispatching theory base of urban water supply forecast are expounded in this paper. The paper introduces the method of urban water supply forecast, the classification and classification of urban water supply emergency, the composition of emergency early warning, the level of early warning and the distribution of information, and gives the emergency plan and emergency dispatching measures for urban water supply. application of water and demand in the dry season of the city Based on the characteristics of the dry season run-off in China, the pre-warning technology is based on BP neural network. Based on the groundwater numerical simulation model, the groundwater exploitation forecast model, the dry season water demand analysis forecast model and the urban dry season supply and demand water forecast model based on the water equilibrium equation are presented based on the groundwater numerical simulation model, and the urban water supply safety early warning technology is put forward, including the classification of the early warning level. Research on approval authority, release process, early warning index and early warning standard (reservoir, underground water source, etc.) Methods and techniques. (3) Rules-based urban water supply Based on the network diagram of the urban water supply emergency dispatch network, the emergency dispatch model technology has set up a rule-based emergency dispatch model for urban water supply, that is, in strict compliance with a series of pre-given On the basis of system operation rules, as much as possible to ensure the safety of water supply or the minimum impact, according to the priority utilization sequence of the urban water supply water source and the priority of the water users to meet the order, adopt the "The priority water source is first distributed, and the priority users are first satisfied." dispatching mode, set the water diversion parameters of the project, the operation rules of the reservoir dispatching and the utilization of the underground water The hydrological compensation existing in multi-source, multi-user and multi-project urban water supply system can be quickly solved by daily adjustment and calculation of urban water supply emergency dispatching, such as rules, water source conversion parameters, water source utilization limits, water demand, etc. The problem of complex adjustment and calculation, such as action, engineering compensation, emergency water source utilization and scheduling, and timely access to urban water supply Emergency dispatching plan for safety. (4) City water supply safety The whole-emergency early-warning and emergency management system is based on the existing database, using the forecast, early warning and emergency dispatch model established in this paper, adopting the object-oriented design concept, and developing the city The emergency early warning and dispatching system for water supply safety realizes the functions of data management (information service), plan management, supply and demand water situation forecast, emergency early warning (alarm), emergency dispatching and the like, and is the water supply The decision-making platform is provided for safety emergency management. (5) It is built According to the characteristics of the water supply in Anyang city, the early-warning theory, the early-warning technology, the early-warning model and the management system presented in this paper are used, and the early-warning standard and the early-warning result are given, and on this basis, the early-warning standard and the early-warning result are given. the events are respectively set with different scenarios for analysis,
【学位授予单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：TU991

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