老龄海底管道延寿期时变风险评估与完整性管理研究

发布时间：2019-03-10 19:35

【摘要】：石油天然气能源是重要的战略资源,关系着国民经济与国家安全。随着我国经济的持续高速发展,对石油天然气资源的需求也逐年提高,海洋油气资源的开发利用也呈逐年上升的趋向。随着海上油气田开发的继续,以及地质勘探初期不确定性因素的存在,作为海上石油重要运输方式的海底管道在达到设计寿命之后,由于边际油田的发现,往往需要延长其使用寿命,管线不可避免的进入老龄化阶段。因此,对延寿期老龄海底管道进行安全分析,既可保障国内老龄海底管道安全运行,又可避免因管道失效造成的经济损失和环境污染。本文结合海底管道老龄化的实际状况,以海洋工程、可靠性工程、贝叶斯理论、完整性管理理论和有限元模拟软件等为支撑,研究老龄海底管道复杂条件下管道延寿运行的时变风险、管道腐蚀剩余寿命和完整性管理模型。为老龄海底管道的安全运行与再延寿评估决策提供技术支撑。本文主要研究成果如下:1老龄海底管道失效风险辨识与泄漏动态风险评估基于鱼刺图与层次分析相结合的方法,对老龄海底管道失效风险进行分析,并计算风险因素对层次总目标管道失效的权重值,建立老龄海底管道失效风险辨识模型。利用贝叶斯网络的前行预测推理计算老龄海底管道安全屏障失效的发生概率,利用其后向诊断推理能力计算各屏障因素的后验概率,并可以得出导致老龄海底管道腐蚀泄漏事故的基本事件的最可能组合模式,从而能够对造成老龄海底管道泄漏的关键失效屏障采取相应的预防措施构建老龄海底管道泄漏动态风险分析模型,对海底管道动态风险管理提供理论支撑。2老龄海底管道系统腐蚀剩余寿命评估建立腐蚀管道有限元模型,针对腐蚀区域的尺寸参数长、宽、高进行有限元特征参数分析,提出腐蚀深度特征参数对管道腐蚀区域的平均应力影响显著,随着腐蚀深度的增加,腐蚀区域的应力增幅较大。基于灰色理论,提出腐蚀深度灰色预测模型,根据管道历史检测数据,预测管道腐蚀深度变化趋势,结合有限元分析软件ANSYS,建立含腐蚀缺陷管道模型,研究有限元模型及灰色预测理论在老龄海底管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测方面的应用,提出腐蚀剩余寿命评估模型。3老龄海底管道延寿期完整性管理模型从老龄海底管道延寿期间完整性管理实施需求出发,明确老龄海底管道延寿期间完整性管理的内涵和外延,基于老龄海底管道完整性管理的技术标准体系、文件体系、完整性评价技术、变更管理模式,结合老龄海底管道延寿期间的特殊要求等,从数据收集与整理、高后果区识别、风险评估、完整性评定、维修与维护、效能评价五个方面提出延寿期间老龄海底管道的完整性管理模型。4老龄海底管道数字化分析与管理软件采用Visual Basic 6.0语言开发老龄海底管道数字化分析与管理系统。该软件采用参数化、模块化和信息化技术实现老龄海底管道延寿期的风险评估和完整性管理研究,结合科学计算软件MATLAB和有限元模拟软件ANSYS进行数据计算和后处理分析,为延寿服役期内老龄海底管道安全管理提供应用系统平台。软件大体由如下几个模块组成:属性参数设置模块、用户管理模块、风险辨识模块、时变风险评估模块、腐蚀剩余寿命评估模块、完整性管理模块和数据输出模块。
[Abstract]:Oil and gas energy is an important strategic resource, which is related to national economy and national security. With the sustained and high-speed development of our country's economy, the demand for petroleum and natural gas resources has increased year by year, and the development and utilization of marine oil and gas resources have been increasing year by year. With the development of offshore oil and gas fields, and the existence of the uncertain factors in the initial stage of geological exploration, the submarine pipeline, which is an important transportation method for offshore oil, has long service life after reaching the design life, because of the discovery of the marginal oil field. The pipeline inevitably enters the aging stage. Therefore, the safety analysis of the old submarine pipeline in the life extension period can not only guarantee the safe operation of the domestic old submarine pipeline, but also avoid the economic loss and the environmental pollution caused by the failure of the pipeline. In this paper, based on the actual situation of the aging of the submarine pipeline, the time-varying risk of pipeline life extension operation under the complicated conditions of the old submarine pipeline is studied with the support of ocean engineering, reliability engineering, Bayesian theory, integrity management theory and finite element simulation software. The pipeline corrosion residual life and the integrity management model. And provides the technical support for the safety operation of the old submarine pipeline and the decision-making of the life-life extension assessment. The main research results of this paper are as follows:1. The identification of the failure risk of the aged submarine pipeline and the assessment of the leakage dynamic risk are based on the method of combination of the fish-spike pattern and the hierarchical analysis, the failure risk of the old submarine pipeline is analyzed, and the weight value of the risk factors on the failure of the total target pipeline of the hierarchy is calculated, The model of the identification of the failure risk of the aged submarine pipeline is established. using the forward prediction reasoning of the Bayesian network to calculate the occurrence probability of the failure of the safety barrier of the old submarine pipeline, and the most probable combined mode of the basic events leading to the corrosion and leakage accident of the old submarine pipeline can be obtained, so that the dynamic risk analysis model of the leakage dynamic risk of the old submarine pipeline can be constructed by taking corresponding preventive measures to the key failure barrier which causes the leakage of the old submarine pipeline, in ord to provide that theoretical support for the dynamic risk management of the submarine pipeline, a finite element model of the corrosion pipeline is established for the corrosion residual life assessment of the old submarine pipeline system, and the finite element characteristic parameter analysis is carried out for the long, wide and high dimension parameters of the corrosion area, The influence of the corrosion depth characteristic parameters on the average stress of the corrosion area of the pipeline is significant, and the stress of the corrosion area increases with the increase of the corrosion depth. Based on the grey theory, the grey prediction model of the corrosion depth is proposed. According to the data of the pipeline history, the change trend of the corrosion depth of the pipeline is predicted, and the model of the corrosion-resistant pipeline is established by combining the finite element analysis software ANSYS. The application of the finite element model and the grey prediction theory to the prediction of the residual life of the aged submarine pipeline is studied, and the corrosion residual life assessment model is put forward. the connotation and the extension of the integrity management during the life extension of the old submarine pipeline are defined, the technical standard system, the document system, the integrity evaluation technology, the change management mode and the special requirements during the life extension of the old submarine pipeline are combined on the basis of the technical standard system, the document system, the integrity evaluation technology, the change management mode and the life extension period of the old submarine pipeline, Data collection and consolidation, high-consequence area identification, risk assessment, integrity assessment, maintenance and maintenance, In this paper, the integrity management model of the aged submarine pipeline during life extension is put forward in five aspects. The digital analysis and management software of the aged submarine pipeline is developed by using Visual Basic 6.0 language to develop the digital analysis and management system of the old submarine pipeline. The software adopts parameterized, modular and information technology to realize the risk assessment and the integrity management research of the life extension period of the old submarine pipeline, and the data calculation and post-processing analysis are carried out in combination with the scientific calculation software MATLAB and the finite element simulation software ANSYS, And provides an application system platform for the safety management of the old submarine pipeline in the service life of the life prolonging service. The software is mainly composed of the following modules: an attribute parameter setting module, a user management module, a risk identification module, a time-varying risk evaluation module, a corrosion residual life evaluation module, an integrity management module and a data output module.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TE973

【相似文献】