金属埋地管道腐蚀泄漏及大气扩散过程推理模型研究
发布时间：2019-08-02 21:17
【摘要】：为了定量评估埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏的风险,将贝叶斯网络和蒙特卡罗模拟方法用于计算管道腐蚀泄漏及扩散范围概率。建立了埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏贝叶斯网络,量化了各事件之间的关联。在已知先验概率的基础上,运用贝叶斯概率计算得到管道腐蚀泄漏的后验概率值。利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对泄漏后气体扩散范围进行了数值模拟,给出了主要模型变量的概率密度函数,得到了扩散区域范围概率分布特征。研究结果表明,管道腐蚀泄漏过程受输送介质和土壤腐蚀性、防腐措施有效性和大气扩散条件的影响,具有较大的不确定性。分析方法考虑了模型参数随机性对计算结果的影响,评估结果可以用于比较不同条件下埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏扩散的风险。
[Abstract]:In order to quantitatively evaluate the risk of corrosion leakage of buried metal pipeline, Bayesian network and Monte Carlo simulation method are used to calculate the probability of corrosion leakage and diffusion range of buried metal pipeline. The Bayesian network of corrosion leakage of buried metal pipeline is established, and the correlation between the events is quantified. On the basis of known prior probability, the posterior probability value of pipeline corrosion leakage is obtained by using Bayesian probability. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the gas diffusion range after leakage. The probability density function of the main model variables is given, and the probability distribution characteristics of the diffusion region range are obtained. The results show that the corrosion leakage process of pipeline is affected by the corrosion of transport medium and soil, the effectiveness of anticorrosion measures and atmospheric diffusion conditions, and there is great uncertainty. The analysis method takes into account the influence of the randomness of the model parameters on the calculation results, and the evaluation results can be used to compare the risk of corrosion leakage and diffusion of buried metal pipelines under different conditions.
【作者单位】： 中国安全生产科学研究院;国家安全生产监督管理总局信息研究院;
【基金】：中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研专项资金项目(2017JBKY13，，2016JBKY07)
【分类号】：TE988.2
[Abstract]:In order to quantitatively evaluate the risk of corrosion leakage of buried metal pipeline, Bayesian network and Monte Carlo simulation method are used to calculate the probability of corrosion leakage and diffusion range of buried metal pipeline. The Bayesian network of corrosion leakage of buried metal pipeline is established, and the correlation between the events is quantified. On the basis of known prior probability, the posterior probability value of pipeline corrosion leakage is obtained by using Bayesian probability. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the gas diffusion range after leakage. The probability density function of the main model variables is given, and the probability distribution characteristics of the diffusion region range are obtained. The results show that the corrosion leakage process of pipeline is affected by the corrosion of transport medium and soil, the effectiveness of anticorrosion measures and atmospheric diffusion conditions, and there is great uncertainty. The analysis method takes into account the influence of the randomness of the model parameters on the calculation results, and the evaluation results can be used to compare the risk of corrosion leakage and diffusion of buried metal pipelines under different conditions.
【作者单位】： 中国安全生产科学研究院;国家安全生产监督管理总局信息研究院;
【基金】：中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研专项资金项目(2017JBKY13，，2016JBKY07)
【分类号】：TE988.2
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 蒋永清;任U
本文编号：2522366
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