非一致性洪水对南宁防洪工程体系防洪能力的影响研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 23:01

本文关键词：非一致性洪水对南宁防洪工程体系防洪能力的影响研究　出处：《广西大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：郁江流域由于受气候变化与人类社会活动等影响,导致流域下垫面发生显著变化,实测洪水序列不再满足一致性假定。本文以南宁市防洪工程体系为研究对象,探讨非一致性洪水对其防洪能力的影响,以期为下垫面变化条件下南宁防洪工程体系防洪调度规则的调整提供技术支撑。首先,采用水文时间序列变异性综合检验方法,对百色、南宁水文站实测洪水序列是否满足一致性进行检验。分别对序列趋势、跳跃成分进行检验,综合各方法检验性能,分析其物理成因,确定百色洪峰、最大7d洪量、南宁最大7d洪量以及百色-南宁区间最大7d洪量序列发生趋势变异；南宁洪峰和百色-南宁区间洪峰序列发生跳跃变异,变异点均为1986年。其次,根据变异性检验结果,对趋势变异形式和跳跃变异形式分别采用基于随机的时间系列分解合成法和基于混合分布理论的方法,对非一致性洪水序列的频率进行计算分析。将得到的成果与不考虑变异性的原序列成果进行对比,结果表明流域受下垫面孕育洪水条件变化的影响,洪水减少的现象比较明显。最后,通过Copula-SAR (1)模型模拟百色和百色-南宁区间峰量一致的非一致性洪水过程,建立百色与百色-南宁区间洪水Copula联合分布函数将其随机组合,对百色、老口水库进行联合调度,得到南宁市防洪能力约为260年一遇,大于规划设计的200年一遇标准。若仍以南宁市设计200年一遇防洪标准为目标,则可适当抬高百色水库汛限水位,提高水库蓄水期发电效益,实现洪水资源化利用。计算表明,可将百色水库主汛期汛限水位从214m调整至215.2m。
[Abstract]:The Yujiang River Basin caused by climate variability and human social activities and other factors, resulting in basin surface changed significantly, the observed flood series no longer satisfy the consistency assumption. Taking Nanning flood control engineering system as the research object, this paper discusses the influence of non coherent flood on its flood control capacity, with a view to provide technical support for adjustment of flood control operation rules of Nanning flood control engineering system under the condition of underlying surface change. First of all, the method of hydrological time series variability comprehensive test is used to test the consistency of the measured flood sequence in Baise and Nanning hydrological stations. On sequence trend, jump component test, the test method of comprehensive performance, analyze its physical causes, determine the Baise peak, maximum 7d volumes, Nanning's largest volume in 7d and Baise - Nanning interval maximum volume in 7d sequence variation trend; Nanning peak and Baise - Nanning interval flood series jump variation, variation points were in 1986. Secondly, according to the results of variability test, the trend variation form and jump mutation form are calculated and analyzed based on the random time series decomposition method and the mixed distribution theory. The results obtained are compared with the original sequence without considering variability. The results show that the flood affected by the underlying surface is affected by the change of flood season, and the phenomenon of flood decrease is more obvious. Finally, through the Copula-SAR (1) model to simulate the non consistency of flood process in Baise and Baise - Nanning interval peak was consistent, the establishment of Baise and Baise - Nanning flood Copula joint distribution function of the random combination, the joint control of Baise, the old mouth reservoir, Nanning city flood control capacity of about 260 years, more than the planning and design of the standard in 200 years. If the design of the Nanning 200 year flood protection standards as the goal, may be appropriate to raise the water level of Baise reservoir flood control, improve the efficiency of generating reservoir, flood resource utilization. The calculation shows that the main flood season the water level of Baise reservoir to adjust from 214m to 215.2m.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV87

【参考文献】