基于集对分析的大坝风险后果综合评价

发布时间：2018-01-08 23:15

本文关键词：基于集对分析的大坝风险后果综合评价　出处：《人民黄河》2016年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对大坝风险的自身不确定性、相互间关联性及量纲不统一而造成的大坝风险后果综合评价困难的问题,结合现有法律法规对溃坝后果事故等级分类的相关规定,建立基于集对分析的大坝风险后果综合评价模型,从同、异、反三方面刻画风险后果与各事故等级的趋同程度,并根据最大集对势原理确定大坝风险后果综合评价等级及其排序。将该评价模型应用于江西省5座水库大坝溃坝后果综合评价中,并将该评价结果与基于属性区间计算模型的评价结果进行对比。结果表明:集对分析评价模型过程简明、运算量少,且评价结果合理、客观、全面、清晰,为大坝风险后果综合评价提供了一种新思路。
[Abstract]:In view of the uncertainty of dam risk and the difficulty of comprehensive evaluation of dam risk caused by the inconsistency of interrelation and dimension it is difficult to evaluate the consequences of dam risk. Combined with the relevant provisions of existing laws and regulations on the classification of dam failure consequences, a comprehensive evaluation model of dam risk consequences based on set pair analysis is established, from the same and different. The reverse three aspects describe the degree of convergence between the risk consequences and the different accident levels. According to the principle of maximum set pair potential, the comprehensive evaluation grade and ranking of dam risk and consequence are determined, and the evaluation model is applied to the comprehensive evaluation of dam failure consequences of 5 reservoirs in Jiangxi Province. The evaluation results are compared with the evaluation results based on attribute interval calculation model. The results show that the evaluation model is simple in process, less computation, reasonable, objective, comprehensive and clear. It provides a new idea for comprehensive evaluation of dam risk and consequence.
【作者单位】：郑州大学水利与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379192)
【分类号】：TV64
【正文快照】： 风险是对生命、健康、财产和环境负面影响的可能性和严重性的度量,是溃坝可能性和产生后果的乘积,即风险=概率×后果[1]。目前,针对风险概率的研究成果较为丰富,而对风险后果的研究相对匮乏。随着人口数量的增加及经济、社会发展水平的不断提高,大坝失事造成的后果将比以往更

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