面平均雨量误差和产流量误差修正的对比研究——以富江流域为例

发布时间：2018-01-10 17:06

本文关键词：面平均雨量误差和产流量误差修正的对比研究——以富江流域为例　出处：《中国农村水利水电》2016年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：实时洪水预报误差修正技术对于提高洪水预报精度有着重要意义,首先对两种基于系统响应理论的实时洪水预报误差修正方法进行了简要介绍,然后将两种不同的修正方法与新安江模型结合,同时应用于受水利工程和雨量资料代表性影响较大的富春江流域。通过对两种方法修正结果的对比和分析,基于系统响应曲线的产流量误差修正方法的效果优于面平均雨量误差修正方法的效果。作者从修正方法的结构方面分析了二者的区别并解释了应用效果不同的原因。对于研究者选取适当的实时洪水预报修正方法具有一定的指导意义。
[Abstract]:Real-time flood forecasting error correction technology is of great significance to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. Firstly, two methods of real-time flood forecasting error correction based on system response theory are briefly introduced. Then two different correction methods are combined with Xinanjiang model and applied to the Fuchun River basin which is greatly affected by water conservancy engineering and rainfall data. The comparison and analysis of the results of the two methods are carried out. The effect of the error correction method based on the response curve of the system is better than that of the surface average rainfall error correction method. The difference between the two methods is analyzed from the structure of the correction method and the original method with different application effects is explained. Therefore, it has certain guiding significance for researchers to select appropriate real-time flood forecast correction methods.
【作者单位】：河海大学水文及水资源学院;国网新源水电有限公司富春江水力发电厂;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51279057) 水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201401034) 国家自然科学基金项目(41371048/51190091/51479062)
【分类号】：P338
【正文快照】： 降雨径流过程涉及蒸发、下渗、产流和汇流等多个环节,影响因素复杂,实时洪水预报精度难以满足要求。预报模型初始状态值误差、模型输入误差、模型结构的不充分性以及参数非优化都会影响预报结果的精度[1,2]。所以经常使用误差修正技术来减少模型在预报时产生的误差[3]。简单的

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