基于突变理论的北京市水资源安全分析

发布时间：2018-01-23 02:40

  本文关键词： 水资源安全 突变理论 突变评价 水资源管理　出处：《中国农村水利水电》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在社会经济不断发展的大背景下,水资源安全的重要性日益突显,水资源短缺已成为北京市经济与社会发展的主要制约因素之一。鉴于水资源系统的复杂性和突跳性,基于突变理论,建立水资源安全尖点突变模型,利用突变评价法对模型变量进行量化归一计算,寻求表征北京市水资源安全状态的变量(水资源与社会经济发展协调度)与其两类控制变量(水量和水质)的关系,得出了保障北京市社会经济发展的水量供需差值的安全下限,并对远景年份(2020、2030年)的水资源安全状况进行了评估,为北京市水资源可持续管理提供依据。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the continuous development of social economy, the importance of water resources security is becoming increasingly prominent. Water shortage has become one of the main restricting factors of economic and social development in Beijing. In view of the complexity and sudden jump of water resources system, a cusp catastrophe model of water resources safety is established based on catastrophe theory. The catastrophe evaluation method is used to calculate the model variables. To explore the relationship between the variables (coordination degree of water resources and social and economic development) and two kinds of control variables (water quantity and water quality) which represent the safety of water resources in Beijing. The safety lower limit of water supply and demand difference for social and economic development in Beijing is obtained, and the water resources security situation is evaluated in the prospective year of 2020, 2030. To provide the basis for sustainable management of water resources in Beijing.
【作者单位】： 华北电力大学可再生能源学院;
【基金】：“水资源高效开发利用”国家重点专项(2016YFC0402200) 长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目(CKWV2015232/KY)
【分类号】：TV213.4
【正文快照】： 0引言水资源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的重要物质资源。随着人口增长和社会经济不断发展,水资源短缺形势越发严峻,水资源安全问题日益成为人类社会关注的焦点问题之一。广义的水资源安全,是指水资源对国家的可持续发展具有良好的支撑和保障能力[1]。具体到某一区域,则指可供水，

本文编号：1456463