秃尾河流域径流衰减驱动力因子分析

发布时间：2018-01-25 05:31

本文关键词： 水文学及水资源径流衰减主成分分析人类活动秃尾河流域　出处：《自然资源学报》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：掌握流域径流演变规律,探讨其影响因子,对流域水资源合理开发利用和科学管理具有重要的意义。论文依据秃尾河流域1956—2010年径流、降水资料以及榆林站1956—2010年气温资料,采用高桥浩一郎公式计算了流域蒸散发量,利用Kendall秩次检验法分析了流域降雨、径流和蒸发的趋势演变特性;采用主成分分析法研究了多因子对流域径流衰减的影响;建立了径流衰减量与主要影响因子之间的统计模型。结果表明:1)流域径流量呈显著减少趋势,而蒸发量和降水量减少趋势不显著;2)在径流衰减驱动力因子中,人类活动因子权重为71.1%,而气候因子权重为28.9%,各驱动力因子对径流衰减的贡献率由大到小依次为:林草梯田坝地流域用水量年降水量年蒸发量;3)径流衰减量与林草、梯田的指数回归模型能较好地反映径流衰减量与驱动力因子之间的定量关系,可以为流域治理和水资源开发利用提供科学依据。
[Abstract]:It is of great significance for the rational development and utilization of water resources and scientific management to grasp the evolution law of river basin runoff and discuss its influencing factors. This paper is based on the runoff of Tongwei River basin from 1956 to 2010. Precipitation data and temperature data of Yulin station from 1956 to 2010 were used to calculate the evapotranspiration of the watershed by using the Gao Qiao Hao Ichiro formula and the rainfall in the basin was analyzed by Kendall rank test method. Trend evolution characteristics of runoff and evaporation; The effects of multi-factors on runoff attenuation were studied by principal component analysis (PCA). The statistical model between runoff attenuation and main influencing factors is established. The results show that runoff volume decreases significantly, but evaporation and precipitation decrease insignificantly. 2) among the driving force factors of runoff attenuation, the weight of human activity factor is 71.1 and that of climate factor is 28.9%. The contribution rate of each driving force factor to runoff attenuation is as follows: annual precipitation annual evaporation of forest and grass terrace dam basin; 3) the exponential regression model of runoff attenuation, forest, grass and terrace can better reflect the quantitative relationship between runoff attenuation and driving force, and can provide scientific basis for watershed management and water resources exploitation and utilization.
【作者单位】：西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院;
【基金】：西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费专项资金(QN2009088);西北农林科技大学科技发展基金(A2990215215)~~
【分类号】：P333.1
【正文快照】： 伴随着全球气候变化和经济社会发展,人类活动对自然环境的影响愈来愈显著,流域水循环过程愈来愈活跃,在原有的天然水循环内产生了人工侧支循环[1]。径流是最主要的水循环要素之一,是水资源的重要组成部分,其变化直接影响着水资源的开发利用[2]。对河川径流演变的驱动力因子分

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