环境规制、技术进步与工业用水强度的脱钩关系与动态响应

发布时间：2018-01-26 03:33

本文关键词： 工业用水环境规制技术进步脱钩　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：日趋紧张的水资源形式不断加剧对工业发展的束缚,而在当前新型工业化与创新驱动发展背景下,进一步提高工业技术创新力度,缓解资源要素约束已成为支撑工业转型升级的重要驱动源。据此,科学评价工业用水变化与环境规制、技术进步的关系对于推动工业升级及其水资源利用具有重要参考意义。本文采用脱钩理论和Butterworth滤波技术对2002—2014年中国工业用水强度与环境规制、技术进步之间的脱钩状态变化趋势进行了定量分析,并通过构建误差修正、脉冲响应与预测方差分解模型,对上述要素之间的协整关系及内在作用机理进行集成研究。结果显示:(1)工业用水强度与环境规制、技术进步之间呈"非理想-理想-非理想"的周期性脱钩波动状态,而对其进行Butterworth滤波后,工业用水强度与环境规制之间呈现"相对稳定-震荡波动-脱钩持续"脱钩阶段,工业用水强度与技术进步之间则呈"波动调整-脱钩持续"的脱钩特征;(2)在环境规制、技术进步分别与工业用水强度具有协整关系,而环境规制与技术进步之间存在非协整关系的前提下,环境规制对工业用水强度引发的正向效应要大于负向效应,而技术进步对工业用水强度控制的支撑仍显薄弱;(3)后期环境规制与技术进步对工业用水强度的冲击虽然会产生短期的动态波动,但其长期效应则有助于实现工业用水强度的有效控制。这意味着,要想有效缓解工业用水强度,短期内要加强环境规制力度,对工业用水强度形成全面的"倒逼机制",并在加大技术创新投入的同时,提高工业节水降污技术成果的转化效率。
[Abstract]:The increasingly tense form of water resources continues to intensify the shackles of industrial development, and in the current new industrialization and innovation driven development background, further improve the strength of industrial technological innovation. Alleviating the constraint of resource elements has become an important driving source to support the industrial transformation and upgrading. Accordingly, the scientific evaluation of industrial water use changes and environmental regulation. The relationship of technological progress is of great significance for promoting industrial upgrading and water resources utilization. This paper applies decoupling theory and Butterworth filtering technology to Chinese industry from 2002 to 2014. Water intensity and environmental regulation. The trend of decoupling state change between technological progress is quantitatively analyzed, and the decomposition model of impulse response and prediction variance is constructed by error correction. The cointegration relationship between the above factors and its internal mechanism are studied. The results show that: 1) the industrial water intensity and environmental regulation. There is a periodic decoupling fluctuation state of "non-ideal-ideal-non-ideal" between technological progress, and it is filtered by Butterworth. The relationship between industrial water use intensity and environmental regulation is characterized by "relatively stable, fluctuating fluctuation and continuous decoupling", while between industrial water intensity and technological progress is characterized by "fluctuating adjustment-decoupling persistence". 2) under the premise that environmental regulation, technological progress has cointegration relationship with industrial water intensity, and there is non-cointegration relationship between environmental regulation and technological progress. The positive effect of environmental regulation on industrial water intensity is greater than that of negative effect, while the support of technological progress to industrial water intensity control is still weak. Although the impact of environmental regulation and technological progress on industrial water intensity will produce short-term dynamic fluctuations, its long-term effect will help to achieve effective control of industrial water intensity. In order to effectively alleviate the intensity of industrial water use, we should strengthen the environmental regulation in the short term, form a comprehensive "inverted forcing mechanism" to the intensity of industrial water use, and increase the investment in technological innovation at the same time. Improve the conversion efficiency of industrial water saving and pollution reduction technology.
【作者单位】：中国航天系统科学与工程研究院;山东省低碳经济技术研究院;泰山学院商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金-广东联合基金重点项目“面向智慧城市的水资源多元数据融合与建模方法研究”(批准号:U1501253) 国家自然科学基金项目“区域复合生态经济系统耦合效应与政策调控研究—以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例”(批准号:71371112) 广东省省级科技计划项目“水资源大数据综合应用平台研发及产业化”(批准号:2016B010127005) 山东省自然科学基金项目“山东半岛蓝色经济区环境经济复合系统仿真与预警机制研究”(批准号:ZR2012GM020)
【分类号】：F424;TV213.4
【正文快照】： 3.山东省低碳经济技术研究院,山东淄博255012)“十三五”时期是中国加速工业转型发展、推动制造强国建设的关键时期,对此各相关领域纷纷做出积极响应。工信部及时发布《2016—2020年工业绿色发展规划》,助推国内工业向资源节约型、环境友好型升级,并在规划中明确指出到2020年,

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