新疆区域水资源对产业生态系统与经济增长的动态关联——基于VAR模型

发布时间：2018-01-29 00:27

本文关键词： 产业生态系统经济增长动态关系 VAR模型新疆　出处：《生态学报》2017年16期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：新疆正面临"五化同步"对水资源的需求不断增长与水资源开发利用过度的矛盾。水资源瓶颈制约已成为影响新疆经济可持续发展和长治久安的突出问题之一。运用VAR模型,通过ADF检验、脉冲响应函数和方差贡献度分解,对2000—2014年新疆耗水产业生态系统和经济增长的长期均衡关系进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)经济增长与总用水量、工业用水量和农业用水量之间均存在长期均衡关系;(2)经济发展对用水量产生负向冲击,工业用水量和农业用水量随着经济发展出现正向冲击效应。(3)新疆经济快速增长伴随着水资源的大力开发和过度利用。据此提出对策建议,通过实施严格的退地减水政策,明确用水总量控制和定额指标,加强跨流域调水工程建设,防止浪费等多途径维持新疆水资源可持续利用和耗水产业健康发展。
[Abstract]:Xinjiang is facing the "five Modernization synchronization" The contradiction between the increasing demand for water resources and the excessive exploitation and utilization of water resources. The bottleneck restriction of water resources has become one of the outstanding problems affecting the sustainable economic development and long-term stability of Xinjiang. The VAR model is used. The impulse response function and variance contribution are decomposed by ADF test. This paper analyzes the long-term equilibrium relationship between water consumption ecosystem and economic growth in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2014. The results show that the economic growth and total water consumption. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between industrial water consumption and agricultural water consumption. 2) Economic development has a negative impact on water consumption. With the development of economy, the rapid economic growth of Xinjiang is accompanied by the great development and over-utilization of water resources. Accordingly, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Through the implementation of strict policy of land retreat and water reduction, the total quantity control and quota index of water use should be defined, the construction of water diversion project should be strengthened, and the sustainable utilization of water resources and the healthy development of water consumption industry in Xinjiang should be maintained by preventing waste and so on.
【作者单位】：新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心;新疆大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71463056,41461114) 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2016D01B054)
【分类号】：F127;F224;TV213.4
【正文快照】： 生态系统,水资源无疑是其中重要的组成部分,也是维系生态系统正常运行的必要条件。对生态系统进行系统化分析,通过调研或者模拟,合理配置水资源成为当前研究的一个重要热点。新疆地区,以其特殊的自然环境、独特的绿洲经济以及重要的国家战略地位,决定了水资源合理配置是其其他

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