时间尺度对梯级水电站发电调度建模准确度影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-29 16:51

本文关键词： 金沙江下游多尺度梯级电站调度模型时间尺度精度分析　出处：《工程科学与技术》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着梯级水电站的陆续建成投运,梯级水电站开展联合精细化调度的相关研究,如:模拟长系列径流资料提取调度规则、历史运行过程的优化调度水平精确评价等,对确定性径流情景下梯级水电站联合调度精细化模拟提出了新需求。然而,传统的梯级水电站精细化调度建模研究多集中在水电站水电能转换关系、梯级水电站间水力联系的精细化模拟等方面,关于模型时间尺度对模型准确度影响的研究较少。在确定性径流情景下,模型时间尺度也是影响调度模型准确度的关键因子之一,且其对模型准确度的影响受其他诸多因子的扰动,呈现复杂的关联关系。因此,从理论分析和实例分析2个方面,研究了确定性径流情景下时间尺度对梯级水电站发电调度建模准确度的影响。本文运用控制变量法及逐步逼近的思想分析并推导了影响不同时间尺度调度模型准确度的关键因子,确定了弃水量计算偏差、径流量大小、径流期内变化及初末水位差等关键因子,并定性分析了上述关键因子扰动下模型时间尺度对调度模型准确度的影响。在此基础上,针对金沙江下游梯级水电站实例,以理论分析成果为基础,运用工况设定模拟计算结果统计分析的方法,对金沙江下游梯级水电站不同调度期下不同时间尺度模型准确度进行了定性、定量分析,进而依据上述分析结果建立了金沙江下游梯级水电站多尺度发电调度模型。模拟结果一方面证明了理论分析结果的正确性;另一方面表明所构建的多尺度发电调度模型能够较为准确地反映水电站实际工况,且同时能有效减小调度问题的规模,为梯级水电站的调度规则提取、历史调度评价等提供切实可用的发电调度模型,同时,可为大规模梯级水电站群联合调度问题的降维求解提供新思路。
[Abstract]:With the construction and operation of cascade hydropower stations in succession, the cascade hydropower stations carry out related research of combined fine dispatching, such as: simulating long series of runoff data extraction and dispatching rules. The accurate evaluation of the optimal operation level in the historical operation process puts forward a new requirement for the precise simulation of cascade hydropower stations under deterministic runoff scenarios. The traditional modeling research of cascade hydropower station's fine dispatching mostly focuses on the relation of hydropower station's energy conversion and the detailed simulation of the hydraulic relation between cascade hydropower stations and so on. In deterministic runoff scenarios, model time scale is also one of the key factors that affect the accuracy of scheduling model. And its influence on the accuracy of the model is disturbed by many other factors, showing a complex correlation relationship. Therefore, from the theoretical analysis and case analysis two aspects. The influence of time scale on modeling accuracy of cascade hydropower station power generation dispatching under deterministic runoff scenario is studied in this paper. The control variable method and the idea of stepwise approximation are used to analyze and deduce the accurate scheduling models affecting different time scales. The key factor of accuracy. The key factors, such as the deviation of calculation, the size of runoff, the variation in runoff period and the water level difference at the beginning and end, are determined. The influence of the time scale of the model on the accuracy of the dispatching model is analyzed qualitatively under the disturbance of the key factors mentioned above. On this basis, the example of cascade hydropower stations in the lower reaches of Jinsha River is based on the theoretical analysis results. The accuracy of different time scale models of cascade hydropower stations in the lower reaches of Jinsha River is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively by using the statistical analysis method of simulation and calculation results. Based on the above analysis results, the multi-scale power generation dispatching model of cascade hydropower stations in the lower Jinsha River is established. The simulation results prove the correctness of the theoretical analysis results on the one hand; On the other hand, it shows that the multi-scale power generation dispatching model can accurately reflect the actual conditions of hydropower stations, and at the same time can effectively reduce the scale of the dispatching problem, which can be used to extract the dispatching rules of cascade hydropower stations. The evaluation of historical dispatch provides a practical and practical model for power generation scheduling, and it can also provide a new idea for reducing the dimension of large-scale cascade hydropower station group joint dispatching problem.
【作者单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院;长江勘测规划设计研究院;华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院;浙江大学建筑工程学院;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0402204) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51709275)
【分类号】：TV737
【正文快照】： 3.华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,湖北武汉430074;4.浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058)梯级水电站联合优化调度问题的建模研究一直是水电站优化调度领域内的研究热点问题和难点问题。早期,受限于求解技术,梯级水电站联合优化调度问题的建模工作主要集中在如何建立适应

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