基于改进模糊集分析法的汛期分期

发布时间：2018-02-14 06:10

  本文关键词： 改进模糊集分析法 变异系数法 均值变点分析法 汛期分期 吴城水库　出处：《长江科学院院报》2017年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：传统的模糊集分析法进行汛期分期过程中,在汛期区间与阈值的确定方面存在主观性较强的问题,同时该方法只能考虑单一的因素,针对这些问题提出改进模糊集分析法。使用变异系数法计算指标权重,用每个旬的所有指标加权组合成为一个综合指标,以代替原来的单一指标;使用模糊集合分析法计算隶属度,划分汛期与非汛期,最后在汛期区间内,使用均值变点分析法寻找变点,并以此进行汛期分期。改进的模糊集分析法的分期结果与数理统计法、传统模糊集合分析法的汛期分期结果大体一致,说明提出的改进模糊集分析法适用性强。
[Abstract]:In the process of flood season staging by traditional fuzzy set analysis, there is a strong subjective problem in determining the interval and threshold of flood season, and the method can only consider a single factor. To solve these problems, an improved fuzzy set analysis method is put forward. The coefficient of variation method is used to calculate the index weight, and all the indexes in each ten days are weighted and combined to form a comprehensive index instead of the original single index. The membership degree is calculated by fuzzy set analysis method, and the flood season and non-flood season are divided. At last, the mean value change point analysis method is used to find the change point in the flood season interval. The result of the improved fuzzy set analysis method is consistent with that of the traditional fuzzy set analysis method, which shows that the improved fuzzy set analysis method has strong applicability.
【作者单位】： 太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51509176)
【分类号】：TV697.13
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本文编号：1510054