基于熵权-D数模型的RCC坝施工方案优选研究

发布时间：2018-02-15 00:57

本文关键词： 碾压混凝土坝施工方案优选 D数理论熵权法综合评价指标　出处：《水力发电学报》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：碾压混凝土坝施工方案优选需要综合考虑施工工期、机械利用率、投资规模等多个因素的影响,是一个典型的多属性决策过程。当前研究大多未考虑专家知识水平的差异性和专家判断的模糊性对施工方案优选的影响;同时在施工方案优选研究中,指标权重也多为主观设定,没有明确的数理依据。针对以上问题,利用D数理论具有不考虑决策信息完备性的优势,本研究提出了基于熵权-D数模型的碾压混凝土坝施工方案优选方法。首先,由仿真计算结果得到不同施工方案评价指标,利用Pearson相关性检验方法分析处理评价指标之间的相关性,然后利用熵权法确定各个指标的权重,应用D数理论得到不同施工方案在不同辨识框架下的指标评价D数,最后根据不同专家的信任度排序和不同指标权重大小关系,确定施工方案综合评价D数的融合规则,实现方案优选指标的递归融合,将融合结果进行集成得到施工方案综合评价指标,并将其排序从而优选出最佳施工方案。工程实例表明,此方法可以在决策信息不完备的情况下实现碾压混凝土坝施工方案优选。
[Abstract]:The optimal selection of RCC dam construction scheme needs to take into account the construction period, mechanical utilization ratio, investment scale and other factors. It is a typical multi-attribute decision-making process. Most of the current studies do not take into account the difference of expert knowledge level and the influence of the fuzziness of expert judgment on the optimal selection of construction schemes, and at the same time, in the study of optimal selection of construction schemes, The index weight is also set subjectively, and there is no clear mathematical basis. In view of the above problems, using D number theory has the advantage of not considering the completeness of decision information. In this paper, an optimization method of RCC dam construction scheme based on entropy weight-D number model is proposed. Firstly, the evaluation indexes of different construction schemes are obtained from the simulation results. The correlation between evaluation indexes is analyzed by using Pearson correlation test method, then the weight of each index is determined by entropy weight method, and the index number of different construction schemes under different identification frame is obtained by using D number theory. Finally, according to the order of trust degree of different experts and the relation of weight and weight of different indexes, the fusion rule of comprehensive evaluation D number of construction scheme is determined, and the recursive fusion of optimal selection index of scheme is realized. The comprehensive evaluation index of the construction scheme is obtained by integrating the fusion result, and the optimal construction scheme is selected by ranking it. The engineering example shows that, This method can realize the optimal selection of RCC dam construction scheme under the condition of incomplete decision information.
【作者单位】：天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51621092;51439005) 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB035904)
【分类号】：TV642.2

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