梯级水电站施工导流风险效益分摊及补偿机制研究

发布时间：2018-02-20 14:51

本文关键词： 施工导流风险梯级水电站风险分析合作博弈效益分摊补偿机制　出处：《武汉大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水电流域梯级开发有其巨大的施工优越性,上游水电站对洪水进行合理调度为下游电站的施工导流及防洪度汛创造良好条件,使下游施工导流系统获得了巨大的风险效益。然而,上游电站调蓄和控泄对自身和其他外部主体的利益造成了相应的影响,不同利益主体之间必然会发生冲突和争议,给流域梯级开发下的水电站施工导流方案决策和风险管理带来巨大的挑战。本文围绕梯级水电开发下的施工导流风险效益分摊与补偿的科学问题展开了系统研究工作,对梯级水电站下施工导流风险估计、风险效益确定、风险效益分摊及补偿方法、补偿机制和实现途径进行系统地研究和探索,为梯级水电建设下的施工导流风险控制和分配提供了新思路和新方法。主要研究内容概括如下： (1)系统分析梯级水电站调蓄和控泄作用下的施工洪水特性和演进规律,描述上游水库的泄流过程与区间洪水过程组合对下游导流设计断面的来流影响,引入临时控泄规则进行上游水库调洪演算。耦合上游电站下泄洪水、区间洪水与下泄洪水遭遇及导流建筑物泄流能力不确定性,应用随机模拟方法计算施工导流风险率。实例分析表明,风险分析及计算方法是可行的、适用的。为梯级水电站开发下的施工导流风险效益的计量提供了科学手段。 (2)以上游控泄水电站和施工导流系统为研究对象,以汛期导流施工自由泄流的工况为基准点,系统分析上游电站运行方式的改变对上下游成本和收益的影响,定量计算上游控泄电站风险成本、发电损失及下游导流投资收益、进度收益等,建立控泄方案效益评估标准,论证上游水电站控泄下的施工导流的经济可行性。确定施工导流风险效益的表达和内涵,为研究效益分摊和补偿提供了数据支撑。 (3)从合作竞争关系角度提出梯级电站下施工导流风险效益分摊的必要性,建立基于合作博弈理论的Shapely值效益分摊模型。引入效益贡献程度、风险度、资源投入度等指标,采用多指标半结构模糊数学理论确定指标的权重,对Shapley值法求解的分摊结果进行修正。为研究风险效益分摊提供了新方法,也为进一步研究风险效益补偿方法和补偿机制提供了可行依据。 (4)考虑上游水电站的控泄后自身出力发生变化对当地电网系统电力负荷组织造成影响,剖析调峰电站在控泄中的电力负荷转移作用和外部经济特性,提出了效益分摊是外部性内部化的有效手段。将上下游电站和调峰电站的效益分摊看作一种三方合作的博弈行为,运用合作博弈中的最小核心法进行数学建模并进行风险效益分摊额度求解,为解决水电站施工导流阶段电站群和电网临时调度之间的利益分配冲突提供了理论和方法借鉴。 (5)提出了补偿是落实风险效益分摊的一种支付行为,引入委托代理理论和激励约束机制,耦合控泄流量、风险度、投资额等变量,建立基于委托代理的水电梯级开发条件下的风险效益补偿模型,构建梯级水电开发条件下施工导流风险效益补偿框架和程序,提出实施补偿的相关政策性建议。为补偿管理模式和制度创新提供了方法和思路。
[Abstract]:The cascade development of hydropower basin has its great construction superiority , and the upstream hydropower station can reasonably dispatch the flood into the construction diversion and flood control of the downstream power station . The system research work is carried out on the scientific problem of the cost - benefit allocation and compensation of the construction diversion scheme under the cascade hydropower development . ( 1 ) To systematically analyze the characteristics and evolution of the construction flood in cascade hydropower station under the regulation and control of cascade hydropower station , describe the influence of the combination of the drainage process of the upstream reservoir and the process of interval flood on the inflow of the downstream diversion design section , introduce the temporary control and discharge rules to calculate the diversion risk rate of the upstream reservoir . The example shows that the risk analysis and calculation method are feasible and applicable . The analysis of the risk benefit of the construction diversion under the development of cascade hydropower station provides scientific means . ( 2 ) To analyze the influence of the operation mode of the upstream power station on the upstream and downstream costs and benefits by analyzing the influence of the change of the operation mode of the upstream power station on the upstream and downstream costs and benefits , and quantitatively calculate the risk cost , the power generation loss and the downstream diversion investment income and progress income of the upstream power station , and establish the economic feasibility of the construction diversion under the control of the upstream hydropower station . The expression and the connotation of the construction diversion risk benefit are determined , and the data support is provided for the study benefit allocation and compensation . ( 3 ) From the point of view of cooperative competition , the necessity of cost - benefit allocation of construction diversion risk under cascade hydropower station is put forward , and Shapely value - benefit allocation model based on cooperative game theory is established . The weight of index is determined by using multi - index semi - structured fuzzy mathematical theory , and the assessment result of Shapley value method is modified . It provides a new method for research risk benefit allocation , and provides a feasible basis for further research on risk benefit compensation method and compensation mechanism . ( 4 ) Taking into account the influence of the change of power load of upstream hydropower station on the power load organization of local power grid system , this paper analyzes the power load transfer function and external economic characteristics of the peak power station in the control and discharge , and puts forward the effective means to internalize the efficiency . The profit sharing of the upstream and downstream power stations and the peak power station is regarded as the effective means of external internalization . The theory and method are provided for solving the conflict of interests distribution between the power station cluster and the temporary dispatching of the power grid during the construction diversion stage of the hydropower station . ( 5 ) The compensation is a kind of payment act to implement the risk - benefit allocation , introduce the principal - agent theory and incentive - constraint mechanism , the coupling - controlled leakage flow rate , the risk degree , the investment amount and so on , establish the risk - benefit compensation model under the condition of hydropower ladder development based on the principal agent , construct the compensation framework and procedure of the construction diversion risk benefit under the condition of cascade hydropower development , and put forward the relevant policy suggestions for implementing compensation .

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV551.1

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